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You might think it comes from market makers or whales trying to pump or dump. While that’s always possible, you have to look at one other factor: leverage.

With sufficient leverage, a slight shift in the order books can have a disproportionately large impact on price.

Quite a lot, methinks

I like to look at the estimated leverage ratio, which tells you how much traders are betting with borrowed funds relative to the amount of Bitcoins available to settle their bets.

The higher this metric goes, the more strongly a small price move will trigger liquidations that pump or dump the market.

On this metric, leverage is at its highest since the start of the bull market in 2022.

With so much leverage relative to supply — especially with the relatively low trading volume we’ve seen on most days since May — you don’t need big liquidations to swing prices.

But the size!

Yes, we can always get a big short squeeze like the one that pushed us to $120k earlier this month. One of the biggest liquidation events ever. Pumped Bitcoin’s price up 7% in a day.

I’m talking about the smaller ones that move the market so suddenly and violently, you can’t help but react. You get worked up but the moves don’t necessarily change anything.

As such, until circumstances change, don’t be surprised if we get more of these sudden swings — both to the upside and downside.

You may feel like you need to worry or get excited. More likely than not, it’s just traders getting zapped, not any fundamental shift in circumstances or expectations.

I talk about this and other topics in the Crypto is Easy newsletter.

Who could blame you? Many were down 90% since the beginning of the year.

Now, we’re getting the altcoin pump you’ve wanted.

If your portfolio tracker isn’t clear enough, you can see this pump on my chart of altcoin dominance, which strips out BTC, ETH, and the big stablecoins to see how much money’s going into the millions of smaller tokens rather than the big ones. The pump is clear.

This is also no surprise. Altcoins often pump at the end of Bitcoin’s rallies.

Hakuna matata

Are you excited for altseason? Are you worried this is one more false breakout, the latest in a series of fake pumps that let you down this year?

We’re still in the ideal zone, so I wouldn’t worry about it.

Yes, alts have started to run but you’ll get 50-80% swings in all market conditions. If you're concerned, you may want to play tight rather than let the position run (i.e., sell some after early gains, trim at a fixed price, or set a trailing stop-loss).

Once (IF) we get to the inflection zone in that chart above, we can think about a wholesale exit. Otherwise, let’s take it in stride. All good things will come to an end. Usually, when you least expect it. Plan accordingly.

It’s the same until it changes

One more thing.

This is a proprietary chart to help my Crypto is Easy newsletter subscribers navigate the swings in flows from Bitcoin to altcoins and back.

Notice the change in market structure since 2020. Do you see how the surges have peaked at sequentially lower levels for several years?

It’s entirely possible the ideal zone will fail at some point and the inflection zone will change.

We’ll see. One more thing to keep our eyes on.

I talk about this and other topics in the Crypto is Easy newsletter. Head over there to learn more.

This signals some sort of distress among miners. The cost of mining went too high. Some miners shut down. Short- and long-term measures of hashrate inverted, causing the ribbons to flash.

For a long time, this was a bullish signal. When miners went through periods of distress, they sold, tamping down on Bitcoin’s price. Once they finish selling, the market would rise again. Hash ribbons gave us a quick way to tell when the winds shifted.

Not so fast

As you an see from the movements of Bitcoin’s price in the chart above, the hash ribbons haven’t worked this year.

Why?

Probably because miners fund themselves differently now.

Many have lending arrangements. The public ones can sell equity or debt instruments to raise cash.

You can see this in the Miners Position Index. It's a crude measure of how much miners are selling now compared to a historical benchmark. It's fairly low, suggesting they’re not shipping off more Bitcoins than usual.

Many of them don't need to. They can post their inventory as collateral for a loan.

Also, private brokers like OTC desks are more sophisticated and better-sourced than before, with deep connections to the miners and deal-making structures that help miners smooth everything out.

If you include hash ribbons in your analysis, take this into account. Too much has changed since they were created.

I discuss this topic and others in my newsletter, Crypto is Easy. Head over there to learn more.

Me too. I shared this in a recent post for my newsletter, Crypto is Easy. After a powerful uptrend, Bitcoin’s price went sideways and down in a roughly symmetrical way, then broke above the top “resistance” trendline.

A bull flag, as the traders say. Like so:

A textbook bull flag will not have consolidation circled above, and the trendlines would be parallel. Let’s not be sticklers for lines on a chart. Close enough is good enough.

Whether the flag is textbook or fudgy, we have a bullish break of resistance after consolidation. That’s bullish.

If you’re trading the markets, you can take a long position. This pattern works out about 2/3 of the time.

If you’re not trading the market, you can ignore it.

Shades of bull flags past

Do you want an even better bull flag in similar circumstances? When Bitcoin’s price had recently hit a new all-time high, HODLing had reached its peak, technical charts and cycle theories predicted glory, and everybody agreed the market would soon blast off?

You can look at the 2021 bull flag.

Nice parallel lines, proper volume profile, nearly perfect. Price broke above the top trendline, consolidated briefly, then reached another all-time high, with a target of $100,000.

Take a look.

And that despite so many bullish confluences, for example, this “Peak HODL” chart from _checkonchain.

Different, kinda

To be fair, that was a different time.

We realized (in hindsight) that the HODLing metrics looked so good because people had deposited crypto on exchanges and lending platforms, then borrowed against those holdings to buy more crypto.

Today, we don’t know how many people are taking out margin loans through their brokerage using Bitcoin ETFs as collateral. Let’s hope they’re doing that without the fraud and mischief that went with 2021’s binge.

Can’t deny the bullish trading pattern.

Just make sure you’re not getting too far ahead of yourselves and projecting an outcome that hasn’t happened (and, in previous similar circumstances, did not happen).

I discuss this topic and others in my newsletter, Crypto is Easy. Head over there to learn more.

We’ve spent six months in the banana zone.

So far, it’s not a banana that goes up. It’s a banana that goes sideways, with swings above and below $100,000.

We can’t say everybody’s selling massive amounts and exiting the market. We certainly see people taking a little bit out. Taking the edge off. Protecting capital and taking profits.

“It’ll go up, but just in case, I’ll sell a bit.“

“Peeling” out

You can see this in the metrics. I’ve reviewed HODL patterns in other updates. It’s not a massive groundswell of people racing for the exits, but it’s a larger proportion than normal.

For example, the Spent Volume Age Bands show thicker bodies than usual, along with the typical big spikes. Those thicker bodies signal a higher steady-state of constant selling, not necessarily huge departures.

Accumulation among wallets with .01 to 100 BTC remains subdued, though the 10–100 BTC band grew by 300 wallets (likely from businesses and investment funds).

These behaviors tell you something about the mindset and psychology of people in the market.

People tell me the rest of the year will see massive price increases, altseason, etc., but many of them aren’t putting more money into the market. Doesn’t that say something?

Don’t split yet

If you sell, make sure you set that money aside.

It will be very tempting to put that money back in on the next dip — which defeats the purpose. Wait for the bottom to fall out.

You also have to think about how market psychology will change if we continue to go sideways or down in the coming months.

Most people will HODL until $93k and then sell low to buy lower. Or maybe wait to sell at even lower prices. Gurus will probably tell you to wait for a break of the 50 WMA or bull market support band, something we can talk about when those levels become realistic possibilities (not now).

I’ll keep the orange line just in case you get FOMO or feel like you need to release that tension that has probably built up for a long time. It’s eating you up inside.

Save that feeling (and money) for the bear market. They can last longer than you think, they’ll look great on a chart, and you’re probably telling yourself how happy you’ll be to buy at lower prices.

Everything will feel a lot different when that time comes.

I discussed this topic and others in a recent post for subscribers of my newsletter, Crypto is Easy. Head over to learn more.

75% of those Bitcoins belong to Strategy฿. The company bought most of its stash in the past eight months, almost entirely with other people’s money.

(Assuming its website is accurate.)

Those purchases have tapered off since January. Smaller buys with each round.

Why is the pace slowing down? What does that say about the insatiable institutional appetite the gurus keep talking about? How confident are you that the trend will reverse?

We know competing funds and companies have bought $10-20 billion this year. Surely, more funds and companies have raised money for their purchases beyond the $10-20 billion we know of.

How much more do they want to buy?

Of those who bought, what would make them want to buy a substantially larger amount?

Every day, I hear about some company buying $2 million or $10 million. A little here, a little there, and pretty soon you’re talking about big money—but that assumes they never sell any AND they have an appetite for more.

Saylor alone bought $4 billion since the start of last month.

Am I the only one who wonders if Michael Saylor is essentially the “institutions” you’re hearing so much about? Could Strategy฿ have soaked up the bulk of interest from legacy investors? Can we expect to see a gradual decline in interest over time?

Also, note how an MSTR announcement has capped every upswing since the May peak.

This raises the question: have one or a few large entities taken positions based on Saylor’s actions?

We don’t know how many people have taken out long positions in spot markets or through the ETFs to hedge shorts against MSTR or a related derivative. This can happen regardless of any pattern in Bitcoin’s price at any time, but the coincidence made me wonder if there’s something else to it.

With such little volume, it wouldn't take much to move the market. This would also explain the divergence in Bitcoin’s moves from those of the altcoin market (sideways for BTC, down for altcoins). Nobody with enough size to swing Bitcoin’s price would bother with altcoins (and probably could not find enough liquidity anyway).

It's all speculation. These activities happen behind closed doors, off-chain. If all goes well for the participants, we’ll never know what they did—they'll take their money and go their merry way.

But it creates a risk. If there’s a lot of leverage betting against MSTR and the stock price moves too much, too fast, those investors will sell their Bitcoin positions, potentially tanking the market.

I discussed this topic and others in a recent post for subscribers of my newsletter, Crypto is Easy. Head over to learn more.

It’s working. Recent flows into ETH ETFs have outpaced those into Bitcoin. You can see it on this chart:

Why doesn’t this show up in ETH’s price? Why is ETH still down against Bitcoin since the beginning of the year?

Tokenomics and scale

The answer lies in Ethereum’s tokenomics, scale, and how institutional money flows through the system.

Tokenomics. When users are not transacting on the base layer, Ethereum’s protocol creates more tokens than it can burn. Also, because ETH functions as gas to power transactions and smart contracts, recipients have no incentive to hold it. Stakers and recipients often sell.

Upgrades often focus on reducing fees and improving functionality rather than mechanisms that would drive token value or scarcity. That focus on practical utility brings numerous benefits, but not for ETH holders.

Scale. $3.6 billion total inflows over one year doesn’t move a $340 billion asset. Yes, recent flows have outpaced BTC, but they still lag for the year (and mostly pace or lag BTC before April).

I don’t have the technical or statistical sophistication to conduct a thorough analysis, nor have I found anyone who has done so. But if I had to guess, the ETF essentially acts as a pass-through from institutions to stakers and developers. Those flows bypass holders.

In other words, the ETH play is to stake for passive rewards, build apps that generate profit, or trade ETH tokens. Don’t buy the ETF.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Calendly.

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Short rundown this week because life got in the way. The next rundown will come from a new newsletter service, Beehiiv.

Nothing should change for you and you shouldn’t need to do anything! You might notice a new look and feel for future posts and issues of this newsletter, but the content will stay the same.

Make sure you caught my most recent update.

Catch My Most Recent Update

Look for another update soon, plus the monthly issue toward the end of the week. Sorry for not having much content this time, just me and some job listings.

I’ll try to make up for it over time!

QAs

A brief video to answer questions you might have.

Timestamps:

• 0:16 - why move the newsletter from Substack to Beehiiv

• 2:35 - altseason

• 7:37 - Binance

Jobs Corner

• Solana | Head of Staking Ecosystem | Link to position

• Ethereum Foundation | Grant Analyst & Liaison | Link to position

• Chainlink | Blockchain Data Analyst | Link to position

• Mysten Labs | Partner Manager | Link to position

• Paradigm | Business Operations Analyst | Link to position

• Ledger | QA Automation Engineer | Link to position

• Safe | Protocol Designer | Link to position

• Fireblocks | HR Generalist | Link to position

• Animoca Brands | Summer Internship | Link to position

• ConsenSys | Senior Backend Java Developer | Link to position

These jobs come from the ToolsForCrypto newsletter. If you’d like to post a vacancy here (for free), email mark@markhelfman.com.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

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Today's update features bonus commentary about analysis that uses US-centric data, e.g., “macro” and institutions. Also, the following topics:

• No mo’ FOMO

• Quick refresher

• Sellers, where are you?

• Bonus commentary: watch what’s going on in non-US countries

• A new theory?

• My final altcoin buy

I strongly advise watching the update for nuance, perspective, background, and the best results, but I realize you may not have much time to spare.

To speed up the video (shorten the playing time), tap the circled gear button at the bottom-right corner of the video:

Read more

Big week for the US. Inflation data and earnings reports come out. What does this mean for crypto?

We’ll see.

No matter what happens, we still have only two realistic scenarios, with only one action to take. For more on that and some notes about stablecoins, Binance, Ethereum’s Shanghai pump or dump, and altseason, catch my most recent update.

Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Update - April 5, 2023

Are you getting excited? Fortunately, the crypto market has not substantively changed since last week, but there are a few developments you’ll want to know about before you make any decisions. Today’s update topics: Preface Low volume, little new interest…

Read more

3 years ago · 5 likes · Mark Helfman

Catch the Update

Also, make sure you read my latest altcoin report. It hit the inboxes of all the premium subscribers on April 6.  

This altcoin has massive potential whether or not we ever get an altseason. It’s hard to find 100x opportunities nowadays, but this one could do it.

The sooner you get your hands on this report, the better. Once altseason starts, you’re too late.

Read My Latest Altcoin Report

If you’re on the free plan, this is your last reminder to upgrade your subscription to premium so you can get the report.

Subscribe now

Scroll down for some news, job postings, and other content you may enjoy.

Every now and then, I write a short post about crypto, “two minutes” long. I posted one last week.

Read the Post

Nothing you haven’t heard before. It’s basically a nutshell of what I’ve talked about for years: crypto will make people realize that money doesn’t have to be “backed” by anything, it just needs to do things people want it to do.

U.S. Diplomat to Washington: You’re Becoming Obsolete in One Big Area of Tech Policy

While we’re on the topic of the US, read this open letter from a US diplomat in Politico, a DC-politics trade magazine.

Read the Letter

Frankly, I have nothing to add and generally don’t see why crypto needs the US, its institutions, or its permission. If this technology can do what we think it can do, it will unlock tremendous value for everybody on earth. The US will lose and everybody else will win.

(And US money will find its way in.)

This diplomat’s letter won’t change many minds, but if we get a few more of these over the course of months and years you can start to change the minds of policymakers and the people who they work for.

Maybe an extra talking point or a seed planted in the ear of a Congressional staffer? A bit of ammunition for our lobbyists and advocates as they build relationships with people who can protect (ideally promote) cryptocurrency?

Having worked in Congress, I can assure you, the people representing us and advocating for us know far better than we do about how to maneuver the political system. Let them.

At the end of the day, the results will not reflect substantive analysis and deep reflection, but rather the wants and needs of the people involved in making these decisions.

Jobs Corner

• Solana | Associate Analyst | Link to position

• Pantera Capital | Research Intern | Link to position

• Rarible | Social Media Manager | Link to position

• Ripple | Senior Software Engineer | Link to position

• Moonpay | Recruiting Coordinator | Link to position

• DRW | DeFi Trader | Link to position

• Chainalysis | Senior Data Engineer | Link to position

• Magic Labs | Senior Manager, Finance | Link to position

• OpenSea | Senior Software Engineer | Link to position

These jobs come from the ToolsForCrypto newsletter. If you’d like to post a vacancy here (for free), email mark@markhelfman.com.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

Now imagine you could access that network on-demand with no subscription fees, perfect privacy, and opportunities to monetize your unused storage capacity, services, and content you create with your files.

Today’s data platforms can't do that. They're great, but they all require a trade-off.

With cloud storage like AWS, you never own your data or any storage and networking equipment. While you save on infrastructure costs, you lose control over your data and your costs never go down, only up.

You can solve that problem with your own data centers or equipment, but that costs a lot of money upfront, plus you have to pay ongoing operating costs. It also puts all of the security risks on you. While your costs go down over time, you’ll give back those savings when you inevitably have to upgrade your equipment. 

Distributed data storage platforms solve this problem. 

You get ownership of your data and perpetual access to the infrastructure you need to store, secure, update, and distribute that data. When you buy and stake a token, you get a share of the bandwidth and storage capacity of the platform. You might even recoup your costs if the token’s price goes up or your data needs go down. You can sell your tokens or change the terms and price of your storage allocation as conditions change.

On the flip side, you can sell or lend your storage and networking equipment to the platform. Think of it like Uber or Airbnb for data storage. 

Unlike Uber or Airbnb, you never have to worry about the platform going out of business, changing its fees without your permission, or forcing/keeping you from doing business with anybody who patches into the protocol. You can add or change providers as needed to increase distribution, resiliency, and performance. Or, save money with a lower-cost storage provider competing for your data—all without leaving the platform or relocating your data.

You get tremendous flexibility without the tradeoffs mentioned above. 

In fact, both Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 may end up being a bunch of platforms built on distributed data storage networks, where the networks feed data and content into APIs, smart contracts, and L2 protocols that share and monetize that data. 

Several projects are working on tokenized solutions. For example, Filecoin, Arweave, STORJ, Sia, and others.

Today's project takes a different approach than they do, with architecture that is hard to replicate and a structure that complies with GDPR regulations. It’s much smaller than those other platforms and early tests suggest it has superior speed, incentives, and network effects. 

After five years of development, including input and testing from Fortune 100 companies, you have to assume the project has a strong technical foundation. It also plays in a space that could see huge growth. 

Read more

Fortunately, the crypto market has not substantively changed since last week, but there are a few developments you’ll want to know about before you make any decisions. Today’s update topics:

• Preface

• Low volume, little new interest

• Stablecoins still bleeding

• Metrics look good, EXCEPT

• Binance pump?

• Shanghai dump?

• Altcoins full of hope. Altseason next?

• Crash now or later?

I strongly advise watching the update for nuance, perspective, background, and the best results, but I realize you may not have much time to spare.

To speed up the video (shorten the playing time), tap the circled gear button at the bottom-right corner of the video:

Read more

I plan to move this newsletter to a different hosting platform, Beehiiv. You shouldn’t need to do anything, it all happens in the background. I’m not even involved! I’ll tell you before the switch goes live.

As always, you can email me at mark@markhelfman.com with your questions.

Hei!

Make sure you caught my most recent update.

Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Market Update - March 29, 2023

Ah, Binance, you dirty dog! Uncle Sam says you’re in big trouble! If the US government’s case is valid, you can expect some sort of punishment. Whether it’s a bank-style fine or actual jail time, we’ll see. I’ll leave the legal analysis to others—please comment if you have any insight on this…

Read more

3 years ago · 6 likes · Mark Helfman

Catch My Most Recent Update

In last week’s poll, I asked “How low will bitcoin's price go after today?”

44% said $25,000, 28% said $14,000, and 22% said “only up.” Less than 5% said $8,000 or less.

When I asked this question a few months ago, most people said $8,000 or $14,000. Either the bears didn’t take this poll or people generally feel more optimistic about the market now.

What do I think?

I would keep $14,000 on your radar, but if you wait for that price, you could be waiting forever.

Unless big exchanges are still dumping your crypto without your permission, a lot of sellers have gone away. So, while we still don’t see a lot of buying, we might not need that much.

Miners have started selling more bitcoins at a faster pace in recent weeks, but they hold the smallest percent of supply ever, as shown in the Miner Supply Ratio, a metric that calculates what percentage of bitcoins sit in known miner wallets.

Of course, miners sell all the time, in bull and bear markets, but the impact of their selling is the lowest it’s ever been. Also, we know from on-chain data that they’re mostly selling to people who HODL and stack sats.

On top of that, only about $30-40 billion worth of bitcoin exchange hands each day. You don’t need $400 billion in new money to double bitcoin’s price, you need a lot less. Maybe as little as $30-40 billion once you wipe out the sellers. 

Certainly, that can change. If it does, we’ll see those changes in real time and adjust the analysis as needed. Premium subscribers, I’ll keep you posted on everything.

If you’re not on the premium plan, don’t wait! This market’s more difficult to navigate now than it’s been for a while. My insight and commentary will help you make the most of it.

Subscribe now

Scroll down for some articles, a podcast, a video, a meme, and job listings.

Do you ever think about what the Web3 experience will look like once it’s built?

Gaby Goldberg has some ideas. Read her take on what Web3 interfaces might look like. It’s not what you think!

Greater Still by Gaby Goldberg

Better Interfaces, Better Products

“SQUARES BREED SQUARES” As a self-proclaimed chronically online person, I’ve recently come to terms with the fact that much of my identity — from the places I go out to eat, to the way I decorate my apartment, to the clothes I wear… even to the jobs I take…

Read more

3 years ago · 10 likes · 3 comments · Gaby Goldberg

Why the CFTC Case Against Binance Will Have Very Important Consequences for Crypto

In a recent episode of the Unchained podcast, a lawyer explains why the US lawsuit against Binance matters. Listen to the podcast.

Listen to the Podcast

For us, the US charges against Binance change nothing about crypto prices, BNB, Binance Smart Chain, or anything else.

Unless Binance settles this case, it’ll take years to sort this out. The US government served Ripple in December 2020 and its case is still in court. XRP’s price is higher now than it was then, even after dropping 70% from its 2021 high.

Even if Binance (and XRP) fail, US money will enter crypto. Don’t overthink it.

Andreas Antonopoulos offers some some great perspective in his latest video.

On an unrelated note, I’m no lawyer but US law seems pretty clear. Cryptocurrencies are commodities, securities, and property.

Why doesn't that make any sense?

Because the US has one set of rules for commodities, another set of rules for property, and a different set of rules for securities. As a result, it’s impossible to apply these rules in any comprehensive way.

zkSync

If you read my Airdrop Report, you’ve been fooling around with zkSync for the past two months. The project’s evolved since then—crypto moves quickly!—and I can’t keep up. I’ll continue updating the instructions but can’t catch all of the changes. Too many developments!

Airdrop hunters, read through get this Miles Deutscher thread for some great tips.

Check out my airdrop reports for a few other projects to discover.

Check Out My Airdrops Report

Jobs Corner

• Outlier Ventures | Portfolio Management Associate | Link to position

• Polygon | Technical Writer | Link to position

• OpenSea | On Chain Analytics Engineer | Link to position

• QuickNode | Software Engineer | Link to position

• OKX | Head of People | Link to position

• Alchemy | SEO Content Manager | Link to position

• Aptos Labs | Marketing Manager | Link to position

• Ava Labs | Senior UI/UX Designer | Link to position

• Brave | Web3 Development Intern | Link to position

• DappRadar | Product Owner | Link to position

These jobs come from the ToolsForCrypto newsletter. If you’d like to post a vacancy here (for free), email mark@markhelfman.com.

ToolsForCrypto’s Newsletter

Get updates on the newest crypto and web3 tools! Signup for daily updates on the latest projects and tools

Relax and enjoy the ride!

Read more

If the US government’s case is valid, you can expect some sort of punishment. Whether it’s a bank-style fine or actual jail time, we’ll see. I’ll leave the legal analysis to others—please comment if you have any insight on this!

Leave a comment

Most of the charges against Binance refer to past actions that Binance may no longer be doing. Also, they seem like run-of-the-mill shenanigans that lots of exchanges do. You can bet other exchanges are doing the same thing.

(Get your crypto off of exchanges!)

Unless Binance settles this case, it’ll take years to sort this out. The US government served XRP in December 2020 and its case is still in court. XRP’s price is higher now than it was then, even after dropping 70% from its 2021 high.

In this update, I talk about that and look at some new metrics, miner behaviors, and the altcoin market. Specifically:

• If you missed (or sold) this pump

• Binance

• Miners selling at a faster pace

• Beware the aSOPR

• Careful with BTC pairs and BTC dominance

• Altcoins on the verge of breakout?

• My latest altcoin buy

I strongly advise watching the update for nuance, perspective, background, and the best results, but I realize you may not have much time to spare.

To speed up the video (shorten the playing time), tap the circled gear button at the bottom-right corner of the video:

Read more

If so, I’m happy to announce that there are spots left to partner with this newsletter. If you want to get your brand in front of 20,000 active crypto builders and investors, then Crypto is Easy is your answer!

👉 Apply To Become A Sponsor

Don’t wait until the last moment or you might miss your chance!

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Salam! سلام

Did you read the March monthly issue? I’ll bet you didn’t! I can see the performance metrics 😀.

Here’s a second chance:

Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Give to Powell What Belongs to Powell - March 2023 Monthly Issue of Crypto is Easy

Listen now (23 min) | In last month’s issue, I looked at narratives and why reality matters more than facts, charts, and projections. In this month’s issue, I reflect on cryptocurrency’s relationship with the legacy financial system…

Listen now

3 years ago · 4 likes · Mark Helfman

Read the March Monthly Issue

As you may have heard, Fed Chairman Powell said bank failures might wreck the US banking system enough that the Fed won’t have to raise rates anymore.

Is that good because it gives everybody the “pivot” they’ve wanted for so long, or bad because it means the Fed will finally accomplish its goal of making you poorer, taking away your job, and making your business less profitable?

We’ll see.

Catch my most recent update, where I recap the four approaches I’ve talked about over the past few months, check on some market behaviors you probably want to know about, and look at an unsettling pattern for stablecoins.

Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Update - March 24, 2023

Ramadan Mubarak! Today’s update covers these topics: Recap: four ways to play this market Remarkable HODL behaviors More shenanigans with stablecoins Bitcoin/altcoin dominance 300% gain on a token that’s the same price now as it was when you bought it…

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3 years ago · 2 likes · Mark Helfman

If you took any of the approaches I’ve talked about over these past few months, you’re set. Let the market do its thing.

If you didn’t take any of those approaches or don’t know what I’m talking about, catch the update or watch the video that goes with it.

Catch My Most Recent Update

Scroll down for a poll, a meme, some articles, and job listings.

Also note, I may move this newsletter to a new service provider, Beehiiv. My team’s exploring the option. Nothing will change on your end and I’ll let you know before I switch! I’m sharing this just for transparency.

(I love Substack and it’s the easiest way to start a newsletter, but once you get big enough, other platforms start to make more sense.)

Poll

Nasdaq Aiming to Debut Crypto Custody Service by Q2 End: Bloomberg

Nasdaq still plans to launch its crypto custody service.

Read the Article

While US regulators zap crypto-native businesses like Coinbase and Kraken, they let Wall Street entities like Nasdaq, Fidelity, Blackrock, BNY Mellon, and others move ahead.

It’s almost like US regulators are clearing the path for Wall Street’s regulatory capture under the guise of “keeping us safe.”

If that sounds familiar, you might remember reading my thoughts in Bitcoin or Bust: Wall Street’s Entry Into Cryptocurrency.

(Premium subscribers get the book for free.)

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Wall Street has a deep connection to the US government. It’s a familiar face, you might say—one that should have no problems meeting custody, AML, and registration requirements.

Let’s hope Nasdaq can do crypto better than the London Metals Exchange does nickel!

Although, the conspiracy theorist side of me can’t help but wonder if this has something to do with USDT . . .

On that note, did you read Nic Carter’s latest on the “sophisticated, widespread crackdown against the crypto industry?”

If not, here’s your chance:

Pirate Wires

Did The Government Start A Global Financial Crisis In An Attempt To Destroy Crypto?

Six weeks ago, Pirate Wires published Nic Carter’s explosive Operation Chokepoint 2.0, laying out the case that the Biden Administration was quietly attempting to ban crypto. A month later, the US financial system was thrust into chaos after a series of historic bank failures, most notable among them Silicon Valley Bank. But the failures actually began …

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3 years ago · 133 likes · 7 comments · Nic Carter

As a government employee and former Congressional aide, I can assure you that the US government is not good at “sophisticated, widespread” anything, certainly not crackdowns. And you can see that in its haphazard approach to crypto in recent weeks.

But, sometimes “good enough” is good enough. You get a so-called “chilling effect” because banks get the message and decide that banking crypto companies isn’t worth the money.

When that happens, you can bumble and stumble all you want. You don’t need coordination and savvy. The message does your work for you.

It sucks that crypto businesses will need to move overseas or change their partners and service providers. Too many good people suffer!

If there’s any silver lining, this might give crypto more motivation to double down on building a new financial system where banks are no longer necessary. For more on that, read my article, Silvergate’s Loss is Crypto’s Gain.

Silvergate’s Loss is Crypto’s Gain

Jobs Corner

• MetaMask | Data Analyst | Link to position

• Circle | Senior Software Engineer | Link to position

• Foundation | Sales & Partnerships Lead | Link to position

• Chainlink | Web Designer | Link to position

• Gemini | Social Media Intern | Link to position

• Archimedes Finance | Product Manager | Link to position

• ZORA | Senior Accountant | Link to position

• Uniswap Labs | Senior Frontend Engineer | Link to position

• Ethereum Foundation | Rust Engineer | Link to position

• Web3Auth | Senior DevOps Engineer | Link to position

• Chainalysis | Staff Software Engineer | Link to position

These jobs come from the ToolsForCrypto newsletter. If you’d like to post a vacancy here (for free), email mark@markhelfman.com.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

• Recap: four ways to play this market

• Remarkable HODL behaviors

• More shenanigans with stablecoins

• Bitcoin/altcoin dominance

• 300% gain on a token that’s the same price now as it was when you bought it

In the coming weeks, I’ll have two more altcoins to tell you about, then it’s back to bitcoin, though I’ll add new altcoins as I find them and talk about the altcoin market in these regular updates.

Why have I spent the last 10 months allocating to altcoins?

Long-time subscribers already know. If that’s not you, no worries—I put my facts and reasons in the articles linked below.

To speed up the video (shorten the playing time), tap the circled gear button at the bottom-right corner of the video:

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