Sunday Rundown - April 11, 2021

Still on target

Happy Sunday!

Bitcoin remains in a breakout of a bullish trading pattern in the middle of a parabolic boom. While that’s tough to see that when you look at the price movements for the last few weeks, when you zoom out it’s basically gone straight up for six months.

Some say the market has peaked. Seems like an extreme statement to me. Watch my most recent update for more about that.

Of course, bitcoin will do whatever it wants, we just have to deal with it. Markets, not me, will decide what happens next—up, down, or sideways. Contrary to popular belief, we have seen bitcoin do all three of those things in previous similar situations over the course of its 12 years.

Recent history suggests we can expect bitcoin to zoom as it did under similar circumstances in December and February. Long-term history suggests the bottom will fall out any moment. And every now and then, bitcoin’s price goes sideways for a few months, builds strength, moves into the buying zone of my plan for bitcoin’s bull market, and then blasts off on another mind-blowing parabolic zoom.

Down or sideways will lay a beautiful foundation for a long, strong, sustained bull market. If we start zooming again, as most people expect, the bull market will soon end. If you haven’t had a chance to read my exit plan, you might want to do that now.

And the altcoins?

Altcoins follow wherever bitcoin goes. Altseason will continue until bitcoin says so.

Check out some interesting content below.

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The Pi Cycle gets a lot of attention.

I don’t make decisions based on the Pi Cycle but I like it because it serves as a nice, clean, easy-to-use catch-all for the various metrics that compare short-term price movements with long-term price movements. You can dig through a bunch of indicators or get the same info from the Pi Cycle quickly in one glance. Much easier to use the Pi Cycle.

In this video, a mathematician found seven other combinations of short- and long-term price movements that catch the market cycle peaks from very different directions. Perhaps the Pi Cycle is not as much of a concern as everybody thinks?

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MarketWatch posted a nice summary of why US investors will benefit from a bitcoin ETF, Is a US Bitcoin ETF Coming in 2021?

(ETFs index the price of an asset on behalf of investors, rather than exposing them directly to the asset itself.)

The guests, Jan van Eck, head of longtime ETF-applicant VanEck and Som Seif, CEO of Canada’s Purpose Bitcoin ETF, walk through the reasons why ETFs are good for investors and how a bitcoin ETF is not only different than other ETFs but also better than existing bitcoin financial products.

Nobody needs an ETF to buy bitcoin—it’s not like corn or oil that you need somebody else to buy and sell for you. But it gives casual and institutional investors a cheap, easy way to speculate on bitcoin’s price without actually holding bitcoin.

These people don’t want to deal with custody, ownership, exchanges, private keys, and premiums, nor do they want to learn how to buy, sell, send, and receive bitcoin. They’ll happily pay a fraction of a percent to get the same outcome with a single mouseclick from their portfolio dashboard.

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Swedish Central Bank Delays CBDC Plans Again

• Bottom line: Sweden will delay e-krona, its central bank digital currency, until as late as 2026.

• My take: another country found out that crypto is harder than expected. The geopolitics may force governments to try anyway—many non-US governments remain wary of a stablecoin system that pegs to the dollar and every government understands their currencies face competition from bitcoin, altcoins, and the payment networks developing around cryptocurrencies.

• Why we care: anybody who thinks governments can outpace and out-innovate the crypto industry may want to consider what’s happening with Sweden, Japan, and pretty much everybody else trying to out-crypto the cryptosphere. China took over seven years to develop its CBCD—a forward-thinking move that took an innovation-adjusted eternity to get off the ground (and remains in the testing phase). When your most advanced CBCD is still in development after seven years, you probably don’t have to worry about governments catching up to private entities that have already developed, released, scaled, and integrated stablecoins into commerce.

Relax and enjoy the ride!

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