Thanks for this update Mark! Very interesting the indicator total3/total2, I really like it. Where did you find it? Yes, if you look at that graph, it is telling that money are flowing in and out from eth to the other alts. However, if you adjust the scale of the y-axis to see 0 and 1, you can get a better picture. What I see is that from Jan 2018 till today, this flow of money leaving or entering eth from the other alts is really small, almost negligible. This ratio is around 70%, meaning 70% of the alts market is due to eth, which makes sense given the massive marketcap of eth. The interesting point is that this ratio is moving with a variation of 3% or less, moving between 67% and 73%. So pretty stable in the big picture. Thanks for sharing! :)
Hey Mark, thanks for the great update. You really provide such useful data with evidence when available as well as offer thoughtful perspective when you need to take an educated guess. On top of that I appreciate when you "don't know what to make of it", you say so. So thanks for that.
I don't have anything useful to add, just my own confusion with the non-dip volatility today.
I watched it happen in real time early this morning- from the lead up previous week(s) or so of feel-good bullish price action on BTC and ALTS (how bout that $FTM?! -nice run) right up to the first few price drop notifications I got. Those quickly became a downpour of alerts.
In fact, it happened so fast, even had I been better prepared I don't think it would have helped much. I'm not a day trader and couldn't possibly manage enough take-profit/stop-losses for my bag of alts without getting stopped out from typical volatility.
I had a few positions work out but I did not at all predict this selloff on this particular day. I'm learning to roll more with the volatility. But it's tough when it's happening right in front of me and I suffer from the shoulda coulda wouldas you can have in hindsight.
Unfortunately, I didn't do the one thing I said I'd do the last time- to take real-time notes of what, how and when just as a reference and possibly some clarity. But again I was more like a deer in headlights. I watched the truck approach from afar, then it arrived, then I was looking at its taillights and I barely blinked.
I noticed a few things I'll share if I can compile something meaningful from my timeline. But I definitely remember what alts it started with and thinking "that's odd, I never heard of these, wonder why they're shedding?"
Five min later I was looking at ETH and saw the first significant candle, happened be on Twitter reading what I thought was a random tweet from a crypto portfolio manager (I assume) saying what his stop-losses for ETH were and how much he'd sell at each level down to $3400. Didn't realize the action had already started.
Then Bitcoin - right after I read a Reddit thread about the attempt to coordinate a pump by buying $30 in support of El Salvador-- was digesting that as it approached 53k and I had the quick thought of "hmm I bet a short sell at 53k would do nicely right now". Not my style tho so I moved onto trying to catch everything else.
Before I knew it, it was too late (although I wouldn't really have done more than I did) and decided to sleep and assess the damage when I woke up.
I hope I can extract something more useful from what I watched over the last 24 hours. But really I'm just confused - how does everything dump at the same time? It seems so coordinated.
And why did $SOL and $FTM escape pretty much unscathed?
Yet the hype around $ADA didn't hold? These are the things I hope to sort out just for the sake of learning.
Hi and thanks for the thoughtful comment. No thoughts, on any given day this market can do something that seems shocking. Today, we didn't get anything shocking, the history of crypto is littered with these random sudden swings. People worry about making timely decisions, as they should. I prefer to bank on courage, fortitude, and persistence. When you look at the people who win this market, they tend to have a lot more of that than they have perfect timing.
I don't short ever, but any time you're worried about your portfolio going down, I would advise shorting rather than selling. When you sell you give up your crypto, but when you short you risk only your cash. Why give up something that goes up over time and is hard to get when you can risk something that goes down over time and is much easier to get? And then you can close the short quickly and cut your losses if the market goes back up, rather than chase after a market that's possibly running away from you.
I chalk a lot of things up to the vagaries of the market. Until ADA delivers products and services, I don't feel comfortable commenting on it. SOL and FTM I just don't know enough to comment.
What about Bitcoin Cash ABC and eCash? They both crushed it this week. Quant and IOTA, too. All four keep going up.
I totally agree with Mark. I don't follow or even care about a movement of bitcoin going -14% in a day. That is just noise. I have seen it going -50% in a day and that was important, even though you still have plenty of days to buy. You don't really need to check the graph multiple times per day and get stressed for small movements. I love the plan of Mark because you have an easy strategy that works really well and you can really relax and enjoy the ride. Bitcoin drops from 50k to 43k? Who cares. You bought it last year at 4k, at 6k and at 8k. Even if you bought something this year, you did it with all of us a few months ago, between 30k and 35k. Relax and enjoy the ride :)
"Even if you bought something this year, you did it with all of us a few months ago, between 30k and 35k. Relax and enjoy the ride :)"
Yes I did this year bet 30-35. But not enough. And not cuz I couldn't but because I was being affected by the FUD and was concerned it would do the perma bear thing.
Also I got into BTC before I joined CIE so I kinda went in buying at every chance I got, no strategy besides the nature of it became DCA. which would have been fine... Until it crossed 50 and I kept buying. Yep.
So unfort my avg cost is close to the 29k area. And considering where I started, that's way higher than it should be. I don't like the thought that 29k isn't just a buy spot for me but also around the area I could end up at a loss.
Little did I know about BTC last year and how lucky I was to start at 8k. If I knew then what I know now... Well ya know. I'd be much happier during dips. I had the capital but was getting me feet wet and trying to manage my keys properly and all that. Shoulda aped in then. Lol
I am sorry to hear that you have been affected by the FUD. A general rule is that every time there is FUD, it is a good time to buy :) Also, during those times, Mark was saying to buy because the plan was saying to do so. So if you follow Mark's update, you will be fine. Anyway, even with a 29k average cost, you will do great over the next years. If we are so lucky to go back between 30k and 35k again, don't be shy :D In a few years, once we are above 300k, you will feel really bad by not having bought enough. Even now you may already feel something like that, so just follow your gut feeling (and the plan) :D
I think I create my own FUD. No help needed from the media. But I think it's somewhat relevant too. I also use Mark's forum as my personal venting platform which I'm sure he loves. Lol.
My comments look extra overbearing too when squoze into long vertical quote threads like this. I can't help if the guy inspires me to treat his comments section like my own private subreddit r/uneditedcryptorantings
Seriously tho, the way I look at BTC for me personally is to imagine that I hodl 1 BTC @ my average. Would a one million dollar bitcoin be early retirement riches? Nope. It would merely be in line with inflation + my other investment growths. Don't get me wrong, that's very comforting. But I'd like to focus some more capital towards potential 5x - 10x altcoins that might perform that way over the next year or two so I could roll that into a shot for earning $1 more than I spend YoY within 10 years. I don't think bitcoin is that investment for me. It's absolutely a part of my portfolio, a major part. But IMO if one is under 1 BTC at this point with an avg entry above 20k, the far off target of a legendary 1 million USD price is too far off to get me to my goal.
I think a 25k ETH target and a few select L1 ETH co-existors could be a more timely play. Still working on this thesis though.
I don't see why the bitcoin price cannot make you a 10x over the next two years. It already made 10x since last year (from 4k to 40k). Bitcoin to 1M is not because of inflation (like a coffee that would cost you 1M), but it is because there are tons of money waiting to go to bitcoin ;) Anyway, if you hold btc and alts, you will be just fine. Check the altcoin report from Mark :)
"but any time you're worried about your portfolio going down, I would advise shorting rather than selling. When you sell you give up your crypto, but when you short you risk only your cash"
This is gold Mark- I never really considered this option before. Probably because I previously didn't have access to a means of doing this.
What you're describing sounds like futures contracts? Because wouldn't I be at risk of losing my crypto if I literally sold something short and it reversed on me and I had to cover?
Bear with me. (No pun intended) But in order to short my portfolio as a whole wouldn't I need the equivalent capital in cash to take a short position? For example let's say my portfolio was valued at 1 BTC when viewing it in its entirety in BTC value.
I would need 1 BTC worth of margin risked as collateral as cash (or USDC let's say) in order to sell 1 BTC short (or any short worth the hypothetical valuation of portfolio = 1 BTC cumulative) wouldn't I ? Like I said bear with me - I'm not rushing to go short myself but I'd like to understand more how this looks in practice just for the knowledge.
Thanks for this update Mark! Very interesting the indicator total3/total2, I really like it. Where did you find it? Yes, if you look at that graph, it is telling that money are flowing in and out from eth to the other alts. However, if you adjust the scale of the y-axis to see 0 and 1, you can get a better picture. What I see is that from Jan 2018 till today, this flow of money leaving or entering eth from the other alts is really small, almost negligible. This ratio is around 70%, meaning 70% of the alts market is due to eth, which makes sense given the massive marketcap of eth. The interesting point is that this ratio is moving with a variation of 3% or less, moving between 67% and 73%. So pretty stable in the big picture. Thanks for sharing! :)
Good point, most of the time the spread is fairly narrow.
Hey Mark, thanks for the great update. You really provide such useful data with evidence when available as well as offer thoughtful perspective when you need to take an educated guess. On top of that I appreciate when you "don't know what to make of it", you say so. So thanks for that.
I don't have anything useful to add, just my own confusion with the non-dip volatility today.
I watched it happen in real time early this morning- from the lead up previous week(s) or so of feel-good bullish price action on BTC and ALTS (how bout that $FTM?! -nice run) right up to the first few price drop notifications I got. Those quickly became a downpour of alerts.
In fact, it happened so fast, even had I been better prepared I don't think it would have helped much. I'm not a day trader and couldn't possibly manage enough take-profit/stop-losses for my bag of alts without getting stopped out from typical volatility.
I had a few positions work out but I did not at all predict this selloff on this particular day. I'm learning to roll more with the volatility. But it's tough when it's happening right in front of me and I suffer from the shoulda coulda wouldas you can have in hindsight.
Unfortunately, I didn't do the one thing I said I'd do the last time- to take real-time notes of what, how and when just as a reference and possibly some clarity. But again I was more like a deer in headlights. I watched the truck approach from afar, then it arrived, then I was looking at its taillights and I barely blinked.
I noticed a few things I'll share if I can compile something meaningful from my timeline. But I definitely remember what alts it started with and thinking "that's odd, I never heard of these, wonder why they're shedding?"
Five min later I was looking at ETH and saw the first significant candle, happened be on Twitter reading what I thought was a random tweet from a crypto portfolio manager (I assume) saying what his stop-losses for ETH were and how much he'd sell at each level down to $3400. Didn't realize the action had already started.
Then Bitcoin - right after I read a Reddit thread about the attempt to coordinate a pump by buying $30 in support of El Salvador-- was digesting that as it approached 53k and I had the quick thought of "hmm I bet a short sell at 53k would do nicely right now". Not my style tho so I moved onto trying to catch everything else.
Before I knew it, it was too late (although I wouldn't really have done more than I did) and decided to sleep and assess the damage when I woke up.
I hope I can extract something more useful from what I watched over the last 24 hours. But really I'm just confused - how does everything dump at the same time? It seems so coordinated.
And why did $SOL and $FTM escape pretty much unscathed?
Yet the hype around $ADA didn't hold? These are the things I hope to sort out just for the sake of learning.
Any thoughts?
Cheers
Hi and thanks for the thoughtful comment. No thoughts, on any given day this market can do something that seems shocking. Today, we didn't get anything shocking, the history of crypto is littered with these random sudden swings. People worry about making timely decisions, as they should. I prefer to bank on courage, fortitude, and persistence. When you look at the people who win this market, they tend to have a lot more of that than they have perfect timing.
I don't short ever, but any time you're worried about your portfolio going down, I would advise shorting rather than selling. When you sell you give up your crypto, but when you short you risk only your cash. Why give up something that goes up over time and is hard to get when you can risk something that goes down over time and is much easier to get? And then you can close the short quickly and cut your losses if the market goes back up, rather than chase after a market that's possibly running away from you.
I chalk a lot of things up to the vagaries of the market. Until ADA delivers products and services, I don't feel comfortable commenting on it. SOL and FTM I just don't know enough to comment.
What about Bitcoin Cash ABC and eCash? They both crushed it this week. Quant and IOTA, too. All four keep going up.
🤷♂️
I totally agree with Mark. I don't follow or even care about a movement of bitcoin going -14% in a day. That is just noise. I have seen it going -50% in a day and that was important, even though you still have plenty of days to buy. You don't really need to check the graph multiple times per day and get stressed for small movements. I love the plan of Mark because you have an easy strategy that works really well and you can really relax and enjoy the ride. Bitcoin drops from 50k to 43k? Who cares. You bought it last year at 4k, at 6k and at 8k. Even if you bought something this year, you did it with all of us a few months ago, between 30k and 35k. Relax and enjoy the ride :)
"Even if you bought something this year, you did it with all of us a few months ago, between 30k and 35k. Relax and enjoy the ride :)"
Yes I did this year bet 30-35. But not enough. And not cuz I couldn't but because I was being affected by the FUD and was concerned it would do the perma bear thing.
Also I got into BTC before I joined CIE so I kinda went in buying at every chance I got, no strategy besides the nature of it became DCA. which would have been fine... Until it crossed 50 and I kept buying. Yep.
So unfort my avg cost is close to the 29k area. And considering where I started, that's way higher than it should be. I don't like the thought that 29k isn't just a buy spot for me but also around the area I could end up at a loss.
Little did I know about BTC last year and how lucky I was to start at 8k. If I knew then what I know now... Well ya know. I'd be much happier during dips. I had the capital but was getting me feet wet and trying to manage my keys properly and all that. Shoulda aped in then. Lol
1Reply
I am sorry to hear that you have been affected by the FUD. A general rule is that every time there is FUD, it is a good time to buy :) Also, during those times, Mark was saying to buy because the plan was saying to do so. So if you follow Mark's update, you will be fine. Anyway, even with a 29k average cost, you will do great over the next years. If we are so lucky to go back between 30k and 35k again, don't be shy :D In a few years, once we are above 300k, you will feel really bad by not having bought enough. Even now you may already feel something like that, so just follow your gut feeling (and the plan) :D
I think I create my own FUD. No help needed from the media. But I think it's somewhat relevant too. I also use Mark's forum as my personal venting platform which I'm sure he loves. Lol.
My comments look extra overbearing too when squoze into long vertical quote threads like this. I can't help if the guy inspires me to treat his comments section like my own private subreddit r/uneditedcryptorantings
Seriously tho, the way I look at BTC for me personally is to imagine that I hodl 1 BTC @ my average. Would a one million dollar bitcoin be early retirement riches? Nope. It would merely be in line with inflation + my other investment growths. Don't get me wrong, that's very comforting. But I'd like to focus some more capital towards potential 5x - 10x altcoins that might perform that way over the next year or two so I could roll that into a shot for earning $1 more than I spend YoY within 10 years. I don't think bitcoin is that investment for me. It's absolutely a part of my portfolio, a major part. But IMO if one is under 1 BTC at this point with an avg entry above 20k, the far off target of a legendary 1 million USD price is too far off to get me to my goal.
I think a 25k ETH target and a few select L1 ETH co-existors could be a more timely play. Still working on this thesis though.
I don't see why the bitcoin price cannot make you a 10x over the next two years. It already made 10x since last year (from 4k to 40k). Bitcoin to 1M is not because of inflation (like a coffee that would cost you 1M), but it is because there are tons of money waiting to go to bitcoin ;) Anyway, if you hold btc and alts, you will be just fine. Check the altcoin report from Mark :)
"but any time you're worried about your portfolio going down, I would advise shorting rather than selling. When you sell you give up your crypto, but when you short you risk only your cash"
This is gold Mark- I never really considered this option before. Probably because I previously didn't have access to a means of doing this.
What you're describing sounds like futures contracts? Because wouldn't I be at risk of losing my crypto if I literally sold something short and it reversed on me and I had to cover?
Bear with me. (No pun intended) But in order to short my portfolio as a whole wouldn't I need the equivalent capital in cash to take a short position? For example let's say my portfolio was valued at 1 BTC when viewing it in its entirety in BTC value.
I would need 1 BTC worth of margin risked as collateral as cash (or USDC let's say) in order to sell 1 BTC short (or any short worth the hypothetical valuation of portfolio = 1 BTC cumulative) wouldn't I ? Like I said bear with me - I'm not rushing to go short myself but I'd like to understand more how this looks in practice just for the knowledge.
Thanks!