Thanks for this update Mark! Very interesting the indicator total3/total2, I really like it. Where did you find it? Yes, if you look at that graph, it is telling that money are flowing in and out from eth to the other alts. However, if you adjust the scale of the y-axis to see 0 and 1, you can get a better picture. What I see is that from Jan 2018 till today, this flow of money leaving or entering eth from the other alts is really small, almost negligible. This ratio is around 70%, meaning 70% of the alts market is due to eth, which makes sense given the massive marketcap of eth. The interesting point is that this ratio is moving with a variation of 3% or less, moving between 67% and 73%. So pretty stable in the big picture. Thanks for sharing! :)
Hey Mark, thanks for the great update. You really provide such useful data with evidence when available as well as offer thoughtful perspective when you need to take an educated guess. On top of that I appreciate when you "don't know what to make of it", you say so. So thanks for that.
I don't have anything useful to add, just my own confusion with the non-dip volatility today.
I watched it happen in real time early this morning- from the lead up previous week(s) or so of feel-good bullish price action on BTC and ALTS (how bout that $FTM?! -nice run) right up to the first few price drop notifications I got. Those quickly became a downpour of alerts.
In fact, it happened so fast, even had I been better prepared I don't think it would have helped much. I'm not a day trader and couldn't possibly manage enough take-profit/stop-losses for my bag of alts without getting stopped out from typical volatility.
I had a few positions work out but I did not at all predict this selloff on this particular day. I'm learning to roll more with the volatility. But it's tough when it's happening right in front of me and I suffer from the shoulda coulda wouldas you can have in hindsight.
Unfortunately, I didn't do the one thing I said I'd do the last time- to take real-time notes of what, how and when just as a reference and possibly some clarity. But again I was more like a deer in headlights. I watched the truck approach from afar, then it arrived, then I was looking at its taillights and I barely blinked.
I noticed a few things I'll share if I can compile something meaningful from my timeline. But I definitely remember what alts it started with and thinking "that's odd, I never heard of these, wonder why they're shedding?"
Five min later I was looking at ETH and saw the first significant candle, happened be on Twitter reading what I thought was a random tweet from a crypto portfolio manager (I assume) saying what his stop-losses for ETH were and how much he'd sell at each level down to $3400. Didn't realize the action had already started.
Then Bitcoin - right after I read a Reddit thread about the attempt to coordinate a pump by buying $30 in support of El Salvador-- was digesting that as it approached 53k and I had the quick thought of "hmm I bet a short sell at 53k would do nicely right now". Not my style tho so I moved onto trying to catch everything else.
Before I knew it, it was too late (although I wouldn't really have done more than I did) and decided to sleep and assess the damage when I woke up.
I hope I can extract something more useful from what I watched over the last 24 hours. But really I'm just confused - how does everything dump at the same time? It seems so coordinated.
And why did $SOL and $FTM escape pretty much unscathed?
Yet the hype around $ADA didn't hold? These are the things I hope to sort out just for the sake of learning.
Thanks for this update Mark! Very interesting the indicator total3/total2, I really like it. Where did you find it? Yes, if you look at that graph, it is telling that money are flowing in and out from eth to the other alts. However, if you adjust the scale of the y-axis to see 0 and 1, you can get a better picture. What I see is that from Jan 2018 till today, this flow of money leaving or entering eth from the other alts is really small, almost negligible. This ratio is around 70%, meaning 70% of the alts market is due to eth, which makes sense given the massive marketcap of eth. The interesting point is that this ratio is moving with a variation of 3% or less, moving between 67% and 73%. So pretty stable in the big picture. Thanks for sharing! :)
Hey Mark, thanks for the great update. You really provide such useful data with evidence when available as well as offer thoughtful perspective when you need to take an educated guess. On top of that I appreciate when you "don't know what to make of it", you say so. So thanks for that.
I don't have anything useful to add, just my own confusion with the non-dip volatility today.
I watched it happen in real time early this morning- from the lead up previous week(s) or so of feel-good bullish price action on BTC and ALTS (how bout that $FTM?! -nice run) right up to the first few price drop notifications I got. Those quickly became a downpour of alerts.
In fact, it happened so fast, even had I been better prepared I don't think it would have helped much. I'm not a day trader and couldn't possibly manage enough take-profit/stop-losses for my bag of alts without getting stopped out from typical volatility.
I had a few positions work out but I did not at all predict this selloff on this particular day. I'm learning to roll more with the volatility. But it's tough when it's happening right in front of me and I suffer from the shoulda coulda wouldas you can have in hindsight.
Unfortunately, I didn't do the one thing I said I'd do the last time- to take real-time notes of what, how and when just as a reference and possibly some clarity. But again I was more like a deer in headlights. I watched the truck approach from afar, then it arrived, then I was looking at its taillights and I barely blinked.
I noticed a few things I'll share if I can compile something meaningful from my timeline. But I definitely remember what alts it started with and thinking "that's odd, I never heard of these, wonder why they're shedding?"
Five min later I was looking at ETH and saw the first significant candle, happened be on Twitter reading what I thought was a random tweet from a crypto portfolio manager (I assume) saying what his stop-losses for ETH were and how much he'd sell at each level down to $3400. Didn't realize the action had already started.
Then Bitcoin - right after I read a Reddit thread about the attempt to coordinate a pump by buying $30 in support of El Salvador-- was digesting that as it approached 53k and I had the quick thought of "hmm I bet a short sell at 53k would do nicely right now". Not my style tho so I moved onto trying to catch everything else.
Before I knew it, it was too late (although I wouldn't really have done more than I did) and decided to sleep and assess the damage when I woke up.
I hope I can extract something more useful from what I watched over the last 24 hours. But really I'm just confused - how does everything dump at the same time? It seems so coordinated.
And why did $SOL and $FTM escape pretty much unscathed?
Yet the hype around $ADA didn't hold? These are the things I hope to sort out just for the sake of learning.
Any thoughts?
Cheers