14 Comments
Feb 28, 2021Liked by Mark Helfman

Thanks for the written version of your update, Mark. It also allowed me to fully understand what you did more fully in the video. Keep it up. Good job!!

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Thank you Fabio!

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Oh, wait, the miners position had changed...we'll see...

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if you look at the entirety of its history, in mid-January MPI hit the highest mark it's ever seen

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Yes, I see, it's crazy...what do they usually do afterwards? invest in altcoins? my altcoin portfolio is up like 25-30% today!

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Doesn't seem to matter for price, it's just one measure of enthusiasm/investment into the market. When miners sell more or at faster pace, that puts downward pressure on price. As a result, you need to have more money coming in to keep prices going up.

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Grwat update, thank you Mark! Looking good so far- we need a bit of extension, no rush. If bitcoin falls further (and it looks like it may in the coming days, even to around 30k) do you think it may fall close to the buying zone? If so, should we load up a bit or it needs to CROSS the black line?

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If it even touches the line, I will buy. Still 50/50 this thing shoots up to a massive blow-off top market cycle peak from today's price.

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Hi Mark, thanks for your update. I’m new to the crypto markets having entered at the turn of the year. I subscribe to both this and your Altcoin insights and the advice has been really solid so far, so thank you.

I got in to the market because I couldn’t ignore it. Can you tell me in simple terms why you are bullish on Bitcoin long term? As I see it everyone is just speculating on the price and whilst that’s great and you can make a load of money from it, what is the actual utility of a Bitcoin? Currently Bitcoin mining consumes more energy than the Netherlands and nearly 2/3 of this is derived from fossil fuels (www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-56215787). This raises some questions for me about the scalability of Bitcoin as from my understanding the calculations required to mine new Bitcoin will become more complex and thus require exponentially more energy over time. Finally in spite of the price sky rocketing and possibly continuing to for many years I don’t see it being adopted as a mass currency of exchange at the moment? Ultimately people are just selling it for fiat profits.

So I accept that there’s a great opportunity to make some money here but without scalability and utility isn’t this all going to come crashing down in the year 2032 or whatever?

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Could crash any moment. Here's my investment thesis: https://markhelfman.com/2020/04/08/why-buy-bitcoin-in-uncertain-times-the-easiest-most-obvious-investment-thesis-ever/

To your point, yes, useful things aren't necessarily good investments and good investments aren't necessarily useful things, but people often neglect all the amazing innovation and development on bitcoin and the ways people are working to leverage its open, permissionless blockchain as a global settlement layer for all sorts of transactions. These developments will render those drawbacks irrelevant. The wheel has not changed in thousands of years and literally does nothing. The internal combustion engine has not changed ever. People engineered around its limitations and in doing so, made these things very valuable.

There's no other technology that lets you send money to anybody, anywhere, anytime, in any amount, instantly, with certainty the payment will go through, without needing to collect or share any personal data. Now that traditional finance and mainstream development communities have started to tinker with it, it's only a matter of time. Watch this interview I gave, you may enjoy it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeOgNf0jcFU

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Hi Mark. Great informative video. Looking forward to next update. Being retired and not a lot of extra money to use for investing, we appreciate how you approach and present your data and well thoughtout opinions while cutting through all the noise surrounding bitcoin and crypto in general. Kudos.

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Thanks Larry!

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Hi Mark, Thanks for the update. Where did you see the MVRV getting into the red zone? I am tracking this at lookintobitcoin.com and has not done that yet.

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Glassnode. WooBull actually has a higher number for MVRV Z. I'm assuming each of these charts plot the MVRV consistently across time so even if the exact number changes from one source to another, as long as you stick to the same chart you will get the same result despite the discrepancy.

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