Thanks for the update Mark. Your update reminded me of a calculation and discovery I had recently Id like to share with CIE:
So I decided DCA-ing was too hands off for me when I first started buying Bitcoin approx 1 year ago. I thought with some research and my knowledge from traditional equities markets I could make some well timed buys and sells. You know where this is going already I'm sure.
If I look at my buys over the 1 year timeline I can see my attempts to time the market. I did pretty well the first half (from July 2020) bc I can see the dots on the left and right of short lived pumps. Yes, I thought I had tamed Bitcoin back then.
The 2nd half (when I decided to give ALTs a gander) I did not do so well on timing. That euphoric top? I did some good ol buying hi selling low. Lol . Blamed it on... whatever. Doesn't matter. But it was a stressful year trying to get my head around BTC and crypto as a whole and suffering all stages of market emotions. Beating myself up, angry at the "manipulators", media, FUD etc. In the end, it's perfectly clear I really had no strategy and was following what social media fed to me.
BUT, since I was working with capital only available this day or that week, in different amounts, it ended up kind of randomizing what I thought were genius moves at the time! I was DCAing all along, on average. No, there was no routine, but from the looks of my history you'd think there was.
The reality struck me yesterday when I decided to look back at the closing price every week, on the same day, starting from the 1st buy I made.
The price averaged out to 32k over 52 weeks. For easy maths let's say one invested $10k split evenly over the 52 weeks. They would have accumulated ~ 0.312 BTC today worth around $14k. That's a 40% ROI.
I know, it's not a 2x, 5x or 100x but this perspective is from someone or anyone who might have started a year ago like me. I will keep my numbers private but I ended up with a few percent over 40. I hardly would call it beating the market. (Now, take the reading when BTC was 60k and... Lots more gain obvs, but right in line with DCA again)
So the moral of the story I arrived at was:
Damn, all that stress, all that analysis, all that late night research trying to figure out who had it right... All in vain. I would have been basically right where I am had I just diligently bought each week and lived a much less stressful year! Maybe DCA isn't so bad after all. Not vs a noob trying to pwn bitcoin from day 1.
The kicker is that CIE plan kinda saved me from coming in far under that 40% ROI. I started to follow the Puell chart and the MRZV (I forget the correct name sorry) chart and it kept me from FOMO buying and panic selling. So thanks to you for that.
Finally, it leaves me with a question: If you had a few new members today, and it was their first day ready to get in the market (assuming they did basic Bitcoin and alt education) would you suggest your plan as is, and they should just step into the strategy wherever it happens to be at present, or would your initial advice (non financial DYOR I know) be different? I'm sure you get noobs all the time asking wen moon. But let's imagine these hypothetical noobs are well adjusted and unemotional. What would you tell em?
Thanks for the note and the question. I would tell people to appreciate the opportunity and understand the risks. There's never a bad time to buy bitcoin. Some altcoins will do amazing things in the coming years. But this is also not a "1,000% within one year" opportunity (even if Teeka Tiwari says it is). That was basically late 2018 to November 2020. And this market can drop 50% at any moment, regardless of how healthy you think it is. So, proceed accordingly. I'm not buying, but I already bought. Make sure you buy some but also keep some fresh cash or cheap credit handy for the real opportunities, those opportunities of a lifetime, when the market's not likely to go down much more for much longer and likely to go higher forever. There are many ways to make money. Do that, then buy crypto to protect and grow that money.
But mostly I get new subscribers when the market's going parabolic. And that's a terrible time to buy anything. We're not there yet. Still, I will advise people to wait for the price to go back into the buying zone. Most people who come to this market during a parabolic run usually don't want crypto, they want to sell crypto for more of their government's money. Best to wait until you get a great opportunity to do that, either during the next bear market or whenever the market cools off. And if they just can't contain themselves, they have to buy into the parabola, I suggest they might want to hit the casino or play some online blackjack instead. Same rush with less fuss.
This is good grounding. Thanks. It's a double edged sword tho in that intellectually we can grasp concepts like patience and time horizons of years or longer, but I think our emotional brain usually edges out the rational one. At least for me it does and I'm always trying to keep it chained up. In reality, I don't have any real concept of what 2, 5 or 10 years in the future will bring. We can only really think in time-frames that are more perceivable like days, weeks, maybe months.
Point being, this is hard! Especially only being a year into it. Zoom out on most stock charts over 10 years and the trend is up, slowly but surely. Bitcoin on the other hand looks as parabolic as it does diabolic! And I see that at every zoom in level too. It's extraordinary what emotions mixed with disruptive tech mixed with speculation does to a thing when the " thing " is the thing. Lol. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. It's not a value representation of P/E ratios, EPS, Income vs debt, CEO decisions etc. It's a value representation of itself.
In these short time frames I'm either fighting FOMO from the sidelines or making granular decisions I stand behind.. every day.. for that day. The next day is often filled with regret.
I subscribe to CIE because you suggest a plan that holds up and takes a lot of the guesswork out of this space. And having a plan is way better than no plan. But things seemed simpler in 2015-2018. There was Bitcoin, some ALTs and (I'm just assuming) the focus was more direct. Today with 5,000 altcoins that seem to be doing 200% all around me, everyday, as if I were an expert Battleship player- I can defend against gains like no one else! My ships are fully surrounded by bombardments of opportunity, all visible, but none within reach. I swear it seems like whatever I research and decide " this is a solid project " and align my ships to welcome incoming, the missiles strike every square around me but not mine. Ok I digress from the Battleship analogy.
You're right in that I do want to gather crypto to exchange at a later date for fiat. But I also want to keep the majority of that crypto or bitcoin for what I agree is a long term investment. But between now and that time horizon, I'd like to make decisions that are profitable to help sustain the ride there. Bitcoin is not that thing. So I'm stuck calling out atlcoin squares (A5 , F3, etc ) and hoping I have a successful strike at some point before the dry powder is gone.
Sorry for the frequent long winded replies on your forum. Your updates always get the gears turning and my perspective shifting. This is a good thing!
The thing that occurred to me when you said this isn't the year of 1000% was:
If someone bought 0.1 BTC at the ATH this year, that would have cost $6,400. Not a small sum of money. That number is also familiar bc of its digital significance in "bits" and therefore easy to multiply.
So if you follow the digital bit doubling just 4 times from 64k (64, 128, 256, 512, 1024) you are at $1m Bitcoin.
That 0.1 BTC is now worth just 100k! Bitcoin going to a million dollars a coin (!!!) which is mind blowing, still only nets a 0.1 BTC @64k ~50k or less after taxes.
I need A LOT more bitcoin and more importantly, a coin to reveal itself to me that has room for 10 or more doublings. Bc just 4x more for Bitcoin is a far off thing and investing any amount of fiat between 20 and 60k doesn't have the potential that it did when it was 200 - 6k. Obvious, I know, but definitely a wakeup call for many reasons. Law of large numbers stuff.
Thanks for the update Mark. Your update reminded me of a calculation and discovery I had recently Id like to share with CIE:
So I decided DCA-ing was too hands off for me when I first started buying Bitcoin approx 1 year ago. I thought with some research and my knowledge from traditional equities markets I could make some well timed buys and sells. You know where this is going already I'm sure.
If I look at my buys over the 1 year timeline I can see my attempts to time the market. I did pretty well the first half (from July 2020) bc I can see the dots on the left and right of short lived pumps. Yes, I thought I had tamed Bitcoin back then.
The 2nd half (when I decided to give ALTs a gander) I did not do so well on timing. That euphoric top? I did some good ol buying hi selling low. Lol . Blamed it on... whatever. Doesn't matter. But it was a stressful year trying to get my head around BTC and crypto as a whole and suffering all stages of market emotions. Beating myself up, angry at the "manipulators", media, FUD etc. In the end, it's perfectly clear I really had no strategy and was following what social media fed to me.
BUT, since I was working with capital only available this day or that week, in different amounts, it ended up kind of randomizing what I thought were genius moves at the time! I was DCAing all along, on average. No, there was no routine, but from the looks of my history you'd think there was.
The reality struck me yesterday when I decided to look back at the closing price every week, on the same day, starting from the 1st buy I made.
The price averaged out to 32k over 52 weeks. For easy maths let's say one invested $10k split evenly over the 52 weeks. They would have accumulated ~ 0.312 BTC today worth around $14k. That's a 40% ROI.
I know, it's not a 2x, 5x or 100x but this perspective is from someone or anyone who might have started a year ago like me. I will keep my numbers private but I ended up with a few percent over 40. I hardly would call it beating the market. (Now, take the reading when BTC was 60k and... Lots more gain obvs, but right in line with DCA again)
So the moral of the story I arrived at was:
Damn, all that stress, all that analysis, all that late night research trying to figure out who had it right... All in vain. I would have been basically right where I am had I just diligently bought each week and lived a much less stressful year! Maybe DCA isn't so bad after all. Not vs a noob trying to pwn bitcoin from day 1.
The kicker is that CIE plan kinda saved me from coming in far under that 40% ROI. I started to follow the Puell chart and the MRZV (I forget the correct name sorry) chart and it kept me from FOMO buying and panic selling. So thanks to you for that.
Finally, it leaves me with a question: If you had a few new members today, and it was their first day ready to get in the market (assuming they did basic Bitcoin and alt education) would you suggest your plan as is, and they should just step into the strategy wherever it happens to be at present, or would your initial advice (non financial DYOR I know) be different? I'm sure you get noobs all the time asking wen moon. But let's imagine these hypothetical noobs are well adjusted and unemotional. What would you tell em?
Cheers!
Thanks for the note and the question. I would tell people to appreciate the opportunity and understand the risks. There's never a bad time to buy bitcoin. Some altcoins will do amazing things in the coming years. But this is also not a "1,000% within one year" opportunity (even if Teeka Tiwari says it is). That was basically late 2018 to November 2020. And this market can drop 50% at any moment, regardless of how healthy you think it is. So, proceed accordingly. I'm not buying, but I already bought. Make sure you buy some but also keep some fresh cash or cheap credit handy for the real opportunities, those opportunities of a lifetime, when the market's not likely to go down much more for much longer and likely to go higher forever. There are many ways to make money. Do that, then buy crypto to protect and grow that money.
But mostly I get new subscribers when the market's going parabolic. And that's a terrible time to buy anything. We're not there yet. Still, I will advise people to wait for the price to go back into the buying zone. Most people who come to this market during a parabolic run usually don't want crypto, they want to sell crypto for more of their government's money. Best to wait until you get a great opportunity to do that, either during the next bear market or whenever the market cools off. And if they just can't contain themselves, they have to buy into the parabola, I suggest they might want to hit the casino or play some online blackjack instead. Same rush with less fuss.
This is good grounding. Thanks. It's a double edged sword tho in that intellectually we can grasp concepts like patience and time horizons of years or longer, but I think our emotional brain usually edges out the rational one. At least for me it does and I'm always trying to keep it chained up. In reality, I don't have any real concept of what 2, 5 or 10 years in the future will bring. We can only really think in time-frames that are more perceivable like days, weeks, maybe months.
Point being, this is hard! Especially only being a year into it. Zoom out on most stock charts over 10 years and the trend is up, slowly but surely. Bitcoin on the other hand looks as parabolic as it does diabolic! And I see that at every zoom in level too. It's extraordinary what emotions mixed with disruptive tech mixed with speculation does to a thing when the " thing " is the thing. Lol. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. It's not a value representation of P/E ratios, EPS, Income vs debt, CEO decisions etc. It's a value representation of itself.
In these short time frames I'm either fighting FOMO from the sidelines or making granular decisions I stand behind.. every day.. for that day. The next day is often filled with regret.
I subscribe to CIE because you suggest a plan that holds up and takes a lot of the guesswork out of this space. And having a plan is way better than no plan. But things seemed simpler in 2015-2018. There was Bitcoin, some ALTs and (I'm just assuming) the focus was more direct. Today with 5,000 altcoins that seem to be doing 200% all around me, everyday, as if I were an expert Battleship player- I can defend against gains like no one else! My ships are fully surrounded by bombardments of opportunity, all visible, but none within reach. I swear it seems like whatever I research and decide " this is a solid project " and align my ships to welcome incoming, the missiles strike every square around me but not mine. Ok I digress from the Battleship analogy.
You're right in that I do want to gather crypto to exchange at a later date for fiat. But I also want to keep the majority of that crypto or bitcoin for what I agree is a long term investment. But between now and that time horizon, I'd like to make decisions that are profitable to help sustain the ride there. Bitcoin is not that thing. So I'm stuck calling out atlcoin squares (A5 , F3, etc ) and hoping I have a successful strike at some point before the dry powder is gone.
Sorry for the frequent long winded replies on your forum. Your updates always get the gears turning and my perspective shifting. This is a good thing!
The thing that occurred to me when you said this isn't the year of 1000% was:
If someone bought 0.1 BTC at the ATH this year, that would have cost $6,400. Not a small sum of money. That number is also familiar bc of its digital significance in "bits" and therefore easy to multiply.
So if you follow the digital bit doubling just 4 times from 64k (64, 128, 256, 512, 1024) you are at $1m Bitcoin.
That 0.1 BTC is now worth just 100k! Bitcoin going to a million dollars a coin (!!!) which is mind blowing, still only nets a 0.1 BTC @64k ~50k or less after taxes.
I need A LOT more bitcoin and more importantly, a coin to reveal itself to me that has room for 10 or more doublings. Bc just 4x more for Bitcoin is a far off thing and investing any amount of fiat between 20 and 60k doesn't have the potential that it did when it was 200 - 6k. Obvious, I know, but definitely a wakeup call for many reasons. Law of large numbers stuff.
Ok I've taken up enough space here.
Cheers!