Thanks for the update Mark. Your update reminded me of a calculation and discovery I had recently Id like to share with CIE:
So I decided DCA-ing was too hands off for me when I first started buying Bitcoin approx 1 year ago. I thought with some research and my knowledge from traditional equities markets I could make some well timed buys and sells. You know where this is going already I'm sure.
If I look at my buys over the 1 year timeline I can see my attempts to time the market. I did pretty well the first half (from July 2020) bc I can see the dots on the left and right of short lived pumps. Yes, I thought I had tamed Bitcoin back then.
The 2nd half (when I decided to give ALTs a gander) I did not do so well on timing. That euphoric top? I did some good ol buying hi selling low. Lol . Blamed it on... whatever. Doesn't matter. But it was a stressful year trying to get my head around BTC and crypto as a whole and suffering all stages of market emotions. Beating myself up, angry at the "manipulators", media, FUD etc. In the end, it's perfectly clear I really had no strategy and was following what social media fed to me.
BUT, since I was working with capital only available this day or that week, in different amounts, it ended up kind of randomizing what I thought were genius moves at the time! I was DCAing all along, on average. No, there was no routine, but from the looks of my history you'd think there was.
The reality struck me yesterday when I decided to look back at the closing price every week, on the same day, starting from the 1st buy I made.
The price averaged out to 32k over 52 weeks. For easy maths let's say one invested $10k split evenly over the 52 weeks. They would have accumulated ~ 0.312 BTC today worth around $14k. That's a 40% ROI.
I know, it's not a 2x, 5x or 100x but this perspective is from someone or anyone who might have started a year ago like me. I will keep my numbers private but I ended up with a few percent over 40. I hardly would call it beating the market. (Now, take the reading when BTC was 60k and... Lots more gain obvs, but right in line with DCA again)
So the moral of the story I arrived at was:
Damn, all that stress, all that analysis, all that late night research trying to figure out who had it right... All in vain. I would have been basically right where I am had I just diligently bought each week and lived a much less stressful year! Maybe DCA isn't so bad after all. Not vs a noob trying to pwn bitcoin from day 1.
The kicker is that CIE plan kinda saved me from coming in far under that 40% ROI. I started to follow the Puell chart and the MRZV (I forget the correct name sorry) chart and it kept me from FOMO buying and panic selling. So thanks to you for that.
Finally, it leaves me with a question: If you had a few new members today, and it was their first day ready to get in the market (assuming they did basic Bitcoin and alt education) would you suggest your plan as is, and they should just step into the strategy wherever it happens to be at present, or would your initial advice (non financial DYOR I know) be different? I'm sure you get noobs all the time asking wen moon. But let's imagine these hypothetical noobs are well adjusted and unemotional. What would you tell em?
Thanks for the update Mark. Your update reminded me of a calculation and discovery I had recently Id like to share with CIE:
So I decided DCA-ing was too hands off for me when I first started buying Bitcoin approx 1 year ago. I thought with some research and my knowledge from traditional equities markets I could make some well timed buys and sells. You know where this is going already I'm sure.
If I look at my buys over the 1 year timeline I can see my attempts to time the market. I did pretty well the first half (from July 2020) bc I can see the dots on the left and right of short lived pumps. Yes, I thought I had tamed Bitcoin back then.
The 2nd half (when I decided to give ALTs a gander) I did not do so well on timing. That euphoric top? I did some good ol buying hi selling low. Lol . Blamed it on... whatever. Doesn't matter. But it was a stressful year trying to get my head around BTC and crypto as a whole and suffering all stages of market emotions. Beating myself up, angry at the "manipulators", media, FUD etc. In the end, it's perfectly clear I really had no strategy and was following what social media fed to me.
BUT, since I was working with capital only available this day or that week, in different amounts, it ended up kind of randomizing what I thought were genius moves at the time! I was DCAing all along, on average. No, there was no routine, but from the looks of my history you'd think there was.
The reality struck me yesterday when I decided to look back at the closing price every week, on the same day, starting from the 1st buy I made.
The price averaged out to 32k over 52 weeks. For easy maths let's say one invested $10k split evenly over the 52 weeks. They would have accumulated ~ 0.312 BTC today worth around $14k. That's a 40% ROI.
I know, it's not a 2x, 5x or 100x but this perspective is from someone or anyone who might have started a year ago like me. I will keep my numbers private but I ended up with a few percent over 40. I hardly would call it beating the market. (Now, take the reading when BTC was 60k and... Lots more gain obvs, but right in line with DCA again)
So the moral of the story I arrived at was:
Damn, all that stress, all that analysis, all that late night research trying to figure out who had it right... All in vain. I would have been basically right where I am had I just diligently bought each week and lived a much less stressful year! Maybe DCA isn't so bad after all. Not vs a noob trying to pwn bitcoin from day 1.
The kicker is that CIE plan kinda saved me from coming in far under that 40% ROI. I started to follow the Puell chart and the MRZV (I forget the correct name sorry) chart and it kept me from FOMO buying and panic selling. So thanks to you for that.
Finally, it leaves me with a question: If you had a few new members today, and it was their first day ready to get in the market (assuming they did basic Bitcoin and alt education) would you suggest your plan as is, and they should just step into the strategy wherever it happens to be at present, or would your initial advice (non financial DYOR I know) be different? I'm sure you get noobs all the time asking wen moon. But let's imagine these hypothetical noobs are well adjusted and unemotional. What would you tell em?
Cheers!