Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Share this post

Sunday Rundown - June 6, 2021

cryptoiseasy.substack.com

Discover more from Crypto is Easy: Insights for Profitable Investors

Get a unique perspective on bitcoin and altcoins from a top crypto writer. BONUS: sign up now and also get my personal portfolio strategy that outperforms dollar cost averaging and most traders.
Over 21,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Sunday Rundown - June 6, 2021

Not going to mention Miami

Jun 6, 2021
3
Share this post

Sunday Rundown - June 6, 2021

cryptoiseasy.substack.com
2
Share

Happy Sunday! Guess what?

El Salvador’s president announced his country will accept bitcoin as legal tender.

Some wonder why bitcoin’s price didn’t pump after the aspiring dictator announced his people can use bitcoin to pay for things. Perhaps people don’t know or care? Maybe smart money’s worried about how the Biden Administration will react, given two crucial implications:

  1. El Salvador uses the US dollar as its official currency. Adding bitcoin would undermine this policy and give the US one less string to pull when it wants leverage in its dealings with El Salvador. How does the US government feel about that?

  2. Biden wants to root out corruption in Central America. His diplomats consider El Salvador a corrupt government. His advisors worry about bitcoin’s use by criminals and terrorists. What will they say about bitcoin’s use by corrupt government officials?

Interestingly, the Google Trends metric “interest over time—worldwide” remains elevated and has gone sideways since the beginning of 2021. That’s a sharp contrast to the steep pop-and-drop we saw after the 2017 market peak.

Should we read anything into that?

In my most recent update, I compared our most recent drop to seven other drops we’ve seen during bull markets. If you missed that, watch it now.

Watch the Update

Read below for some content you may enjoy and comment with your own!

Leave a comment


Ethereum Layer 2 Is Becoming Liquid

  • Bottom line: several Ethereum scaling solutions are gaining traction.

  • My take: good to see. Ethereum is publicly, actively pursuing a protocol change that will replace the current version with a new one that nobody’s ever used. It’s not the worst thing to have other options.

  • Why we care: as the writer says, the competition between layer-2 Ethereum projects and Ethereum-killers will be very exciting.


The Week On-chain (Week 22, 2021)

  • Bottom line: smart money and OGs are accumulating, miners are hoarding, and newer entrants are selling at a loss.

  • My take: this data looks at a shorter timeframe than I do, but it supports the same general conclusion: strength has started to return to the market, the opposite of what we saw from November to April. I’m still wary of the miners’ behavior—another index, MPI, shows they’re selling at a historically low rate. Why are they hoarding bitcoin? What happens if they stop doing so?

  • Why we care: in this market, shifts in momentum take a long time to play out. Prices change quickly, trends change more slowly. With enough data, we can spot the trends before they unfold.


While I don’t make decisions based on data models, I appreciate the analysis. Watch this video for interesting comparisons with previous market cycles.


Relax and enjoy the ride!

See All Crypto is Easy Content

3
Share this post

Sunday Rundown - June 6, 2021

cryptoiseasy.substack.com
2
Share
2 Comments
Share this discussion

Sunday Rundown - June 6, 2021

cryptoiseasy.substack.com
Jonny
Jun 6, 2021

Out of interest was there such a focus on on chain analysis during the 2017 bull and following bear market. I was on the scene for 2017 and just held through but don't remember coming across any on chain analysis or even a focus on the four year cycle. Possibly I just completely missed it. Just thinking that if all the savvy investors/traders are looking at on chain analysis does this sort of 'ruin' it? Any thoughts on this would be interesting.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
1 reply by Mark Helfman
1 more comment...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Mark Helfman
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing