31 Comments

Some rational (and possibly helpful) TA here from TraderSZ for BTC & ETH: https://twitter.com/trader1sz/status/1396511242139967488?s=21

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Thanks for sharing! This link works better: https://twitter.com/trader1sz/status/1396511242139967488

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Hi! How important is institutional money to a quick/decent recovery? With the environmental FUD would any of this money risk touching Bitcoin at this time?

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Many sold some or all earlier this year. Institutional money helps, from data I see tentatively coming back in, will monitor. Environmental FUD is distraction, marginal impact on investment decisions

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Mark do you think it isva good idea to buy btc now for six-month hold?

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Yes

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I'm 100% cash atm. Sold all my bags, not sad. Turned nothing into something good. However I still need a 4-5x from here to become financially free. Don't know what to do. I'm in a state of fear and anxiety. Many says the bear has arrived and we may see 90% drops from here. What would you do if you were in my shoes?

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I would trust your gut, whatever it tells you. I'm following my plan. Even better if we go into bear market, best time to accumulate.

Have you thought of any ways to make money other than with cryptos?

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Crypto is the only space I've been involved since 2018 and the only source to make money ( except my day job). I was pretty amateur when I entered the market back in January 2018 and thinking I'm pretty smart to buy the coins 50% down from their ATH. Little did I know what I'm going to face during the next three years, every week a new dip. That experience scares me the most about a bear market and also the fact that I don't have a good paycheck to DCA

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I did that in March 2018. Live and learn. Can't fault you for cashing out when you're ahead. In what other market can you make 4-5x your money (ever).

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Yeah definitely, rewards in crypto are insane the same as the losses. Timing is all that matters. Right time makes you a millionaire.

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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQPSeaWn-uEx-w0XOIg - Benjamin Cowen, very high quality content focused on crypto macro perspective

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Nice! Thanks for sharing

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Hi Mark, I hope that you feel better soon. I was wondering if you could briefly talk about what exchanges, (that you like) can some of your alt-coin favorites like $Rune be bought ans traded on. Pros and cons. Things to avoid.

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ok I'll work on it

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How come there are two Rune coins?

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Must say its a bit disappointing that all that data, predictive models, hitorical patterns, S2F, Wyckoff etc etc and and we end up with a mega crack that "no one" predicted or can even say is a chance to buy the dip or the start of a new bear market..

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Yes, it's a shame nobody can predict the future, they'd make a KILLING.

If we get a bear market, buy it. Greatest investment opportunities come during bear markets, my plan makes sure we catch all of that and all the dips along the way.

At this moment anything down to $25k maintains the long-term uptrend from March 2020. Will freak people out.

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The odd thing is, now you see these tweets with a perfect Wyckoff pattern, I mean spot on. So it s like the prediction was there but nobody cared to do anything about it..? Well, lets pray for S2F I guess 🙂

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I followed it the whole way. Trading patterns are designed to help traders plan not predict the outcome. You see the pattern emerge, you set entry/exit and stop losses accordingly then see how the market moves.

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For the long term perspective Anton’s video is one of the best I’ve seen anywhere https://youtu.be/stN03wk_Wzs

At this time this market could go either way but I think the crypto giants have awoken and whether institutional money piles in or not no, they’re ALL paying close attention.

And your article the other day about “the other guy” and alternatives was spot on

I feel like I could have timed this drop perfectly when in late April 2 friends finally bought in after I had been telling them to do so since September.

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Since November, I told ppl to wait, now they're buying, more people understand this thing isn't going away, not sure they've figured out what it means yet. what did your friends think of the price drop over last 6 weeks

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Tai had a great comment about it all.

“I bought a bunch of bitcoins during the crash. My average price was in the mid $40K's.

Do I care if it drops to $30K after I buy? NO!

Why?

If we are RIGHT and bitcoin becomes the world's new "store of value" and it equals gold at a $10T market cap, then that means we get 9X gain from a $1T bitcoin market cap. Does it matter if I buy bitcoin at $45K or $35K if it goes up 9X? The answer is NO!

What if we are WRONG?

If we are wrong, and bitcoin goes to ZERO, does it matter if we bought at $45K bitcoin or $35K bitcoin? Nope.

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Yes, agree 100% the game theory of this market is very straightforward but we have the luxury of disposable income.

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As well as the foresight to refrain from

1. leverage/margin

2. 100% allocation to crypto assets...

3. Investing early enough to weather this storm

From what I'm witnessing, the biggest pains have come from the first two. Even those who invested late or recently but did so responsibly should fare well given enough time.

Sadly a lot of younger investors are getting a painful lesson in investing that will likely scar them for years to come.

It did me in the dotcom bust of 2001 when I was fully margined on tech stocks and lost everything to margin liquidation. It made me overly cautious for many years afterwards... deer in headlights till I broke free of that.

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Hi Mark, I guess the key question now is are you selling even if the indicators you’ve shared with the premium list are not indicating it’s time? If not, when would you sell - i.e Bitcoin down 60%…maybe 80% and not selling makes me wonder whether those indicators are anyway useful to anyone other than OG HODLers.

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The indicators are for perspective so you can see the bigger picture, bigger trends. I don't make decisions based on them, it's useful context. I buy and sell based on my plan:

https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/the-plan-for-bitcoin

Buy any time bitcoin's price is in the buying zone. Sell when my plans says to sell. HODL or use your crypto the rest of the time.

My plan is designed to build wealth buying crypto at the best opportunities and avoid the FOMO. Yes, to your point, ideal for OG hodlers but also good for anybody looking to grow wealth with crypto. The results speak for themselves.

At the moment, that means bitcoin's price needs to go below $12.5k on the low end before I sell. Tough to estimate the high-end bc that requires extrapolation, but I'd guess about $120k roughly.

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Does that mean if the bitcoin price falls below 12.5k you would sell??

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Yes

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