Thanks Mark. Regarding altcoins - I'm utterly blank and just really have no idea anymore what is right wrong good bad. I've lost any conviction I might have had on what I hold. I understand your method of buying as many as you can (that you think have promise) bc 1 winner can surpass 10 losers.
But I find that I'm spread too thin now and 9 alts going to zero loses me a few K and 1 alt going 10x gains me a few K. Net result 0. This feels more and more like gambling in a casino with nothing but luck / draw of a card holding my fate. And I find my BTC and ETH stacks growing and my alts melting away for one reason or another.
The only facts I know that I would tattoo on myself ala Memento are:
1. There are 20k cryptos. We need maybe 5, 10 tops.
2. Good projects can fail, bad projects can moon. Half of the reason is random, half is market manipulation by big money, smart money and shady money.
3. No amount of research or DD will help my success in picking 1 or 2 of 10 possible successful crypto out of 20k choices. The team can be MIT physicists or a clan of gorillas. Both have equal chances at a run and dump that I will never time right.
4. Turn over rate is ridiculously quick. "Investing" in crypto is an oxymoron all but for the ones that survive. But refer to #1-3
5. Bear market exposes, gradually, what crypto has funding to survive to live another cycle. It's not quality based at all, but capital based, and VC influence, hype driven. Which ones? IDK, they don't have to Report their financials publicly. On chain wallets are misleading.
6. Most alts that had great speculative FOMO runs during bull and are now at or below orig lows will not recover, let alone reach new ATH. If you HODLd thru the tops, it was a mistake and the consequence is bag holding most of them into eternity. Which might make a fair comeback? Refer to #1-5
7. I'm not unique in my secret plan to GTFO of this ponzi "just as soon as my underwater alts break even, I don't give AF if they run after.
8. Because of #7 , I will miss the chance to take a 50% loss while I wait for maybe only a 40% loss. I will miss the chance to add more capital to the biggest losses I have before they white swan run to 3x bc I fear currently they may go to zero because it happens and why throw more money in? Well, bc you just need 1. Which one? Refer to #1-7
9. Crypto (with the exception, maybe, of BTC) is not decentralized, "for the ppl" , stick it to the man. Crypto as it is today is the beta version that will eventually be absorbed by the banks and 1% to repackage and sell back to us as the same old financial products of the past. Only automated, so cheaper for them, more profit for them. The middle man is being cut out, but that's the GOAL of smart money and banks. Because they will pass the savings on to themselves, not on to retail.
10. There is endless opportunity in crypto. Endless potential. Just like walking into a casino there are thousands of potential winning actions just waiting to be taken. All you gotta do is pick the right table at the right time and wager the right bet. How does one do this? Refer to #1-9
Much of this is in jest. Some of it is dead serious. Ask me which ones in 6 months! Cuz right now I literally have absolutely no idea how ridiculous or sound anything I wrote is. Zero. I have precisely equal parts "this is a total scam" + "this is the way of the future you're lucky to be involved" feelings. Maybe in 6 months, a year or 2, I'll learn which is correct. 😂
If selling my altcoins would be a profitable or even break even trade against what I paid for them, I would. But I doubt you're willing to buy them at that price.
I once bought an $AVAX for $120. Just one. I also bought a couple at $100. I also bought more than a couple at $60. I also bought quite a few at $40, 20, even 10. I also sold in btwn there, for no other reason than pure fear that I would lose my investment when the price would surely go down.
This was in less than 6 months.
I spent about 20 hours over a few weeks time studying the project, the team, the tokenomics. I understood about 25% of it. And I'm not an idiot. It's like trying to understand highly complex mini economies and monetary policy. No one knows wtf any of it means. Do you really know what an x * y = k proof ends up being? Do you really understand the mathematics and formulas contained in white papers, right there out in the open for us all to read? When did retail investors all of a sudden become applied mathematics and financial theory professionals?
I liked everything I read that I could understand when I studied Avalanche. I had no inside knowledge of who got what and vested when. It all is futile bc I don't know what I'm actually buying, nor does anyone else.
We just know that we think, somehow, X is a good price. And we'd hope to sell it to someone at X*10 and be disciplined enough to control our greed. I couldn't tell you why AVAX pumps or dumps or if the price right now is fair, under or over valued.
I don't think anyone can. It's a crazy speculative market that yes, will work itself out in a few years. But I personally have absolutely no idea which is the Amazon and Google and which are the Excite and AskJeeves. None. I'm not supposed to. The whales and banks will dictate that.
All I know is I exchanged fiat (money that can buy goods and services I need) for something that may or may not be worth anything in 12 months.
That's just 1 alt. Ethereum I believe has immense value and is massively undervalued. But do I know? Nope. There are 100 way smarter ppl out there with 100 well presented reasons it will go anywhere from 0 to 10000. Again, if I had the luck to buy a few ether for a few bucks and already completed my profitable risk I'd be more than happy to let the rest ride or die. That's super exciting and at no risk to me.
And btc? Again I have no idea. Maybe this time is different. Maybe it's not. 100 analysts 100 different ideas. Way smarter than anything I could ever come up with. I hold onto it because FOMO and what if. I'm also terrified that you can throw MVRV and R-HODL in the trash the second ONE person like Saylor or Do Kwon decides time to sell.
I mean really, do you feel comfortable with the idea of Saylor, his past shady actions, his btc maximalism (extreme views are never good) , and the distribution of btc is just about as bad as American wealth?
The moral here is I'm way too invested in crypto at prices that would make a FOMOTHER proud and that's no one's fault but my own. Well maybe like 2% bitboys fault. 😂 I made the mistake of being here for the tech and not paying enough attn to the fact it's just another trickle up product that yes, will birth the new Google and Amazon, but not before it vampires the vast majority of regular people trying to earn a few % on their money.
Thanks Mark. Regarding altcoins - I'm utterly blank and just really have no idea anymore what is right wrong good bad. I've lost any conviction I might have had on what I hold. I understand your method of buying as many as you can (that you think have promise) bc 1 winner can surpass 10 losers.
But I find that I'm spread too thin now and 9 alts going to zero loses me a few K and 1 alt going 10x gains me a few K. Net result 0. This feels more and more like gambling in a casino with nothing but luck / draw of a card holding my fate. And I find my BTC and ETH stacks growing and my alts melting away for one reason or another.
The only facts I know that I would tattoo on myself ala Memento are:
1. There are 20k cryptos. We need maybe 5, 10 tops.
2. Good projects can fail, bad projects can moon. Half of the reason is random, half is market manipulation by big money, smart money and shady money.
3. No amount of research or DD will help my success in picking 1 or 2 of 10 possible successful crypto out of 20k choices. The team can be MIT physicists or a clan of gorillas. Both have equal chances at a run and dump that I will never time right.
4. Turn over rate is ridiculously quick. "Investing" in crypto is an oxymoron all but for the ones that survive. But refer to #1-3
5. Bear market exposes, gradually, what crypto has funding to survive to live another cycle. It's not quality based at all, but capital based, and VC influence, hype driven. Which ones? IDK, they don't have to Report their financials publicly. On chain wallets are misleading.
6. Most alts that had great speculative FOMO runs during bull and are now at or below orig lows will not recover, let alone reach new ATH. If you HODLd thru the tops, it was a mistake and the consequence is bag holding most of them into eternity. Which might make a fair comeback? Refer to #1-5
7. I'm not unique in my secret plan to GTFO of this ponzi "just as soon as my underwater alts break even, I don't give AF if they run after.
8. Because of #7 , I will miss the chance to take a 50% loss while I wait for maybe only a 40% loss. I will miss the chance to add more capital to the biggest losses I have before they white swan run to 3x bc I fear currently they may go to zero because it happens and why throw more money in? Well, bc you just need 1. Which one? Refer to #1-7
9. Crypto (with the exception, maybe, of BTC) is not decentralized, "for the ppl" , stick it to the man. Crypto as it is today is the beta version that will eventually be absorbed by the banks and 1% to repackage and sell back to us as the same old financial products of the past. Only automated, so cheaper for them, more profit for them. The middle man is being cut out, but that's the GOAL of smart money and banks. Because they will pass the savings on to themselves, not on to retail.
10. There is endless opportunity in crypto. Endless potential. Just like walking into a casino there are thousands of potential winning actions just waiting to be taken. All you gotta do is pick the right table at the right time and wager the right bet. How does one do this? Refer to #1-9
Much of this is in jest. Some of it is dead serious. Ask me which ones in 6 months! Cuz right now I literally have absolutely no idea how ridiculous or sound anything I wrote is. Zero. I have precisely equal parts "this is a total scam" + "this is the way of the future you're lucky to be involved" feelings. Maybe in 6 months, a year or 2, I'll learn which is correct. 😂
Yes, you're mostly right about everything. The value of altcoins comes from growth over time. And then if altseason comes, that's gravy.
What altcoins do you want to sell? If they're on my list, I'll buy them from you.
If selling my altcoins would be a profitable or even break even trade against what I paid for them, I would. But I doubt you're willing to buy them at that price.
I once bought an $AVAX for $120. Just one. I also bought a couple at $100. I also bought more than a couple at $60. I also bought quite a few at $40, 20, even 10. I also sold in btwn there, for no other reason than pure fear that I would lose my investment when the price would surely go down.
This was in less than 6 months.
I spent about 20 hours over a few weeks time studying the project, the team, the tokenomics. I understood about 25% of it. And I'm not an idiot. It's like trying to understand highly complex mini economies and monetary policy. No one knows wtf any of it means. Do you really know what an x * y = k proof ends up being? Do you really understand the mathematics and formulas contained in white papers, right there out in the open for us all to read? When did retail investors all of a sudden become applied mathematics and financial theory professionals?
I liked everything I read that I could understand when I studied Avalanche. I had no inside knowledge of who got what and vested when. It all is futile bc I don't know what I'm actually buying, nor does anyone else.
We just know that we think, somehow, X is a good price. And we'd hope to sell it to someone at X*10 and be disciplined enough to control our greed. I couldn't tell you why AVAX pumps or dumps or if the price right now is fair, under or over valued.
I don't think anyone can. It's a crazy speculative market that yes, will work itself out in a few years. But I personally have absolutely no idea which is the Amazon and Google and which are the Excite and AskJeeves. None. I'm not supposed to. The whales and banks will dictate that.
All I know is I exchanged fiat (money that can buy goods and services I need) for something that may or may not be worth anything in 12 months.
That's just 1 alt. Ethereum I believe has immense value and is massively undervalued. But do I know? Nope. There are 100 way smarter ppl out there with 100 well presented reasons it will go anywhere from 0 to 10000. Again, if I had the luck to buy a few ether for a few bucks and already completed my profitable risk I'd be more than happy to let the rest ride or die. That's super exciting and at no risk to me.
And btc? Again I have no idea. Maybe this time is different. Maybe it's not. 100 analysts 100 different ideas. Way smarter than anything I could ever come up with. I hold onto it because FOMO and what if. I'm also terrified that you can throw MVRV and R-HODL in the trash the second ONE person like Saylor or Do Kwon decides time to sell.
I mean really, do you feel comfortable with the idea of Saylor, his past shady actions, his btc maximalism (extreme views are never good) , and the distribution of btc is just about as bad as American wealth?
The moral here is I'm way too invested in crypto at prices that would make a FOMOTHER proud and that's no one's fault but my own. Well maybe like 2% bitboys fault. 😂 I made the mistake of being here for the tech and not paying enough attn to the fact it's just another trickle up product that yes, will birth the new Google and Amazon, but not before it vampires the vast majority of regular people trying to earn a few % on their money.
Thank you Mark!
You're welcome!