5 Comments

Thanks Mark. Regarding altcoins - I'm utterly blank and just really have no idea anymore what is right wrong good bad. I've lost any conviction I might have had on what I hold. I understand your method of buying as many as you can (that you think have promise) bc 1 winner can surpass 10 losers.

But I find that I'm spread too thin now and 9 alts going to zero loses me a few K and 1 alt going 10x gains me a few K. Net result 0. This feels more and more like gambling in a casino with nothing but luck / draw of a card holding my fate. And I find my BTC and ETH stacks growing and my alts melting away for one reason or another.

The only facts I know that I would tattoo on myself ala Memento are:

1. There are 20k cryptos. We need maybe 5, 10 tops.

2. Good projects can fail, bad projects can moon. Half of the reason is random, half is market manipulation by big money, smart money and shady money.

3. No amount of research or DD will help my success in picking 1 or 2 of 10 possible successful crypto out of 20k choices. The team can be MIT physicists or a clan of gorillas. Both have equal chances at a run and dump that I will never time right.

4. Turn over rate is ridiculously quick. "Investing" in crypto is an oxymoron all but for the ones that survive. But refer to #1-3

5. Bear market exposes, gradually, what crypto has funding to survive to live another cycle. It's not quality based at all, but capital based, and VC influence, hype driven. Which ones? IDK, they don't have to Report their financials publicly. On chain wallets are misleading.

6. Most alts that had great speculative FOMO runs during bull and are now at or below orig lows will not recover, let alone reach new ATH. If you HODLd thru the tops, it was a mistake and the consequence is bag holding most of them into eternity. Which might make a fair comeback? Refer to #1-5

7. I'm not unique in my secret plan to GTFO of this ponzi "just as soon as my underwater alts break even, I don't give AF if they run after.

8. Because of #7 , I will miss the chance to take a 50% loss while I wait for maybe only a 40% loss. I will miss the chance to add more capital to the biggest losses I have before they white swan run to 3x bc I fear currently they may go to zero because it happens and why throw more money in? Well, bc you just need 1. Which one? Refer to #1-7

9. Crypto (with the exception, maybe, of BTC) is not decentralized, "for the ppl" , stick it to the man. Crypto as it is today is the beta version that will eventually be absorbed by the banks and 1% to repackage and sell back to us as the same old financial products of the past. Only automated, so cheaper for them, more profit for them. The middle man is being cut out, but that's the GOAL of smart money and banks. Because they will pass the savings on to themselves, not on to retail.

10. There is endless opportunity in crypto. Endless potential. Just like walking into a casino there are thousands of potential winning actions just waiting to be taken. All you gotta do is pick the right table at the right time and wager the right bet. How does one do this? Refer to #1-9

Much of this is in jest. Some of it is dead serious. Ask me which ones in 6 months! Cuz right now I literally have absolutely no idea how ridiculous or sound anything I wrote is. Zero. I have precisely equal parts "this is a total scam" + "this is the way of the future you're lucky to be involved" feelings. Maybe in 6 months, a year or 2, I'll learn which is correct. 😂

Expand full comment

Thank you Mark!

Expand full comment