Weekly Rundown - April 2, 2023
Steady as she goes
A quick note before I get into today’s issue!
I plan to move this newsletter to a different hosting platform, Beehiiv. You shouldn’t need to do anything, it all happens in the background. I’m not even involved! I’ll tell you before the switch goes live.
As always, you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with your questions.
Make sure you caught my most recent update.
In last week’s poll, I asked “How low will bitcoin's price go after today?”
44% said $25,000, 28% said $14,000, and 22% said “only up.” Less than 5% said $8,000 or less.
When I asked this question a few months ago, most people said $8,000 or $14,000. Either the bears didn’t take this poll or people generally feel more optimistic about the market now.
What do I think?
I would keep $14,000 on your radar, but if you wait for that price, you could be waiting forever.
Unless big exchanges are still dumping your crypto without your permission, a lot of sellers have gone away. So, while we still don’t see a lot of buying, we might not need that much.
Miners have started selling more bitcoins at a faster pace in recent weeks, but they hold the smallest percent of supply ever, as shown in the Miner Supply Ratio, a metric that calculates what percentage of bitcoins sit in known miner wallets.
Of course, miners sell all the time, in bull and bear markets, but the impact of their selling is the lowest it’s ever been. Also, we know from on-chain data that they’re mostly selling to people who HODL and stack sats.
On top of that, only about $30-40 billion worth of bitcoin exchange hands each day. You don’t need $400 billion in new money to double bitcoin’s price, you need a lot less. Maybe as little as $30-40 billion once you wipe out the sellers.
Certainly, that can change. If it does, we’ll see those changes in real time and adjust the analysis as needed. Premium subscribers, I’ll keep you posted on everything.
If you’re not on the premium plan, don’t wait! This market’s more difficult to navigate now than it’s been for a while. My insight and commentary will help you make the most of it.
Scroll down for some articles, a podcast, a video, a meme, and job listings.
Do you ever think about what the Web3 experience will look like once it’s built?
Gaby Goldberg has some ideas. Read her take on what Web3 interfaces might look like. It’s not what you think!
In a recent episode of the Unchained podcast, a lawyer explains why the US lawsuit against Binance matters. Listen to the podcast.
For us, the US charges against Binance change nothing about crypto prices, BNB, Binance Smart Chain, or anything else.
Unless Binance settles this case, it’ll take years to sort this out. The US government served Ripple in December 2020 and its case is still in court. XRP’s price is higher now than it was then, even after dropping 70% from its 2021 high.
Even if Binance (and XRP) fail, US money will enter crypto. Don’t overthink it.
Andreas Antonopoulos offers some some great perspective in his latest video.
On an unrelated note, I’m no lawyer but US law seems pretty clear. Cryptocurrencies are commodities, securities, and property.
Why doesn't that make any sense?
Because the US has one set of rules for commodities, another set of rules for property, and a different set of rules for securities. As a result, it’s impossible to apply these rules in any comprehensive way.
If you read my Airdrop Report, you’ve been fooling around with zkSync for the past two months. The project’s evolved since then—crypto moves quickly!—and I can’t keep up. I’ll continue updating the instructions but can’t catch all of the changes. Too many developments!
Airdrop hunters, read through get this Miles Deutscher thread for some great tips.
Check out my airdrop reports for a few other projects to discover.
Outlier Ventures | Portfolio Management Associate | Link to position
Polygon | Technical Writer | Link to position
OpenSea | On Chain Analytics Engineer | Link to position
QuickNode | Software Engineer | Link to position
OKX | Head of People | Link to position
Alchemy | SEO Content Manager | Link to position
Aptos Labs | Marketing Manager | Link to position
Ava Labs | Senior UI/UX Designer | Link to position
Brave | Web3 Development Intern | Link to position
DappRadar | Product Owner | Link to position
These jobs come from the ToolsForCrypto newsletter. If you’d like to post a vacancy here (for free), email email@example.com.
Relax and enjoy the ride!