WHOA.
Did you see the bitcoin zoom to $9,400?
Paid subscribers knew this was one of two probable paths I expected bitcoin to take after April 27, when I sent them a private update. Either A) zoom past $7,800 or B) drop like 20-30%, then zoom.
We’re in the middle of scenario A, straight zoom. Tell your friends!
Validating My Plan
Did you notice how everybody switched from quiet/sad to loud/bullish once we popped above the $7,800 price?
Even though bitcoin is still down from where it was just two months ago.
For whatever reason, when bitcoin’s price gets above that 150-day moving average, people seem to flip from bearish to bullish—even though nothing else really changes. I explain in this video:
Like the bounce back up from the $4,000’s in March, this recent move validates the thinking behind my plan. While I’m only working with ideas based on backtested patterns, so far everything’s held true. Let’s hope the data and patterns continue to guide us through the ups and downs of the bitcoin market.
If you’re not on a paid subscription, you may want to sign up now for access to the private updates and other premium content.
What comes next for bitcoin
Nobody knows, but I still think we'll likely get a drop. The question is how much higher bitcoin's price goes before that crash—if it even keeps going up—and what price it drops to once the crash comes.
It would’ve been nice for bitcoin’s price to drop back down to the $6,000 or high-5k region before zooming, just to get rid of any lingering non-believers, fake maximalists, and day traders, so we can set a nice foundation for this next move up. Oh well. Maybe March’s crash did that already, but from the looks of my Telegram and WhatsApp group chats, those “I love bitcoin so much I shorted it!” people are still going strong.
For my plan, none of that matters. It’s all about riding the ups and downs, using bitcoin as we like, and only selling when we need to. Now that bitcoin’s above our magic line, we only need to look for dips and hope we don’t get crashes. I’ll let you know when my plan calls for us to buy again.
Keep in mind—not to scare you—but after we got a similar boom near the end of 2015, bitcoin’s price crashed 41%.
Just sayin’.
My weekend task is to dig deeper into the HODL patterns and metrics to see if we still have all those coincidences we saw back in 2015. Should be interesting.
What about altcoins?
I’m working to get more content on alts. Still mulling what to do. If you sent me your thoughts, thank you. I believe I responded to you but if not, nudge me again!
From a “make money” perspective, alts pretty much always ride up or down with bitcoin. Statistically, their movements are highly correlated to bitcoin’s. It’s safe to follow bitcoin’s lead.
I’m researching a plan for alt-season, not finding anything YET that I feel is useful or worth sharing. You can always check out the bitcoin dominance chart for any trends or patterns, and if you find anything interesting, please let me know!
Some of you don’t want bitcoin from me?
If you signed up for a paid subscription without emailing me your bitcoin address, please reach out to me.
All new subscribers get $5 free bitcoin as a THANK YOU from me for signing up for a paid subscription, but without your bitcoin address, I don’t have any way to send it to you!
Of course, it’s your choice whether to get free bitcoin. If you’re still interested, let me know—email mark@markhelfman.com.
More money from Linen
Remember the Linen airdrop I told you about in the March 22, 2020 airdrop alert? Free $1 USDC plus $10 equity and an extra $2 for each referral?
The team is boosting the referral reward from $2 to $5. Your prior participation will be retroactively adjusted on May 5, 2020 to reflect the increased amount.
(This doesn’t change the sign-up bonus, just the referral incentive.)
If you’re not signed up, do it now.
That way, you can get your own referral code (use the app).
May’s update is in the works
I’ll send my May update around May 8-10. In that update, as with all the monthly issues, I’ll look at the bigger financial and regulatory picture and what it means for bitcoin.
Perfect weekend reading, I hope.
YouTube-only mailbag videos and updates
Did you know I have only about 1-2 hours a day to work on Crypto is Easy, respond to emails, tweet, and develop, write, edit, and publish my free content?
RN it’s a solo operation.
For normal updates, I’m going to use YouTube more often. It saves me some time and means your inbox will get fewer emails from me. I hope this is win-win.
You won’t see much change immediately, but over the coming months, I expect to rely more and more heavily on YouTube for the “in the moment” content and mailbag questions I get.
You’ll get the monthly issues, airdrops, and special content in your inbox, as always.
If you’re not subscribed to my YouTube channel, do it now. Tap this button and click the red “Subscribe” button to the right of my name.
I’ll add more videos over time, with the goal of making each new video 1% better than the one before it. I’m not the best spoken or most telegenic, but I try to improve each day.
Should I brand my channel “Crypto is Easy” or keep it under my real name? Hmmm…
What you missed in April
Airdrops
What to expect in May
Macro perspective of the global financial crisis, coronavirus reverberations, China’s blockchain, and what it all means for bitcoin
Bitcoin Market Updates
Altcoin Report
Updates to My Plan for Bitcoin’s Bull Market
There are lots of things to worry about right now. Bitcoin shouldn’t be one of them. Stay safe, be well, relax and enjoy the ride!
April Recap, May Preview for Crypto is Easy