Weekend Rundown - November 28, 2021
Down is the new up?
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It’s already almost December and bitcoin’s price is $53,000. Why do so many people think bitcoin’s price can’t hit $100,000 by the end of the year? A few weeks ago it was the mass expectation. Nothing fundamentally has changed since then, only the price.
Watch this three minute video for my thoughts.
Some think bitcoin’s price must go below $50,000 this year, same as they think it can’t go above $100,000. Any price from $17,700 to $140,000 would fit within normal historical volatility.
At some point, bitcoin’s price will go up for five months, make an all-time high, and I’ll worry. Not today, for the reasons I shared in my November 24, 2021 update and the several other updates I’ve pushed out over the past few weeks.
In last week’s poll, I asked “Will the next bear market start before July 1, 2022?”
Here are the results:
It already started—3%
There will never be another bear market—6%
My answer is also yes. Either the market will explode to its peak in the coming months or some global macroeconomic event will trigger a crisis that will affect crypto along with other assets.
Does that mean you should sell everything now?
That’s up to you. I’ll never stop you from doing what you think is best for you and those you care about. While we see a lot of new people entering the market, some people already left and others are averaging out.
Just so you know, I’m not even thinking of selling. Premium subscribers, you know exactly what I’m doing.
Here’s a video, article, and chart you may enjoy. I’ll have a new poll in the next rundown.
My boy Alessio Rastani puts it all into perspective, as he’s known to do. Watch this video.
Bottom line: El Salvador will use bitcoin as the currency and payment system for a new city.
My take: should be interesting to see how it turns out. If you know anybody connected to this project, can you please slip them a copy of Consensusland?
Why we care: this is a no-lose situation for bitcoin. El Salvador holds a trivial amount of bitcoin in its treasury, financing for this city will lock up a very small amount of bitcoin, and this project will take a while to get off the ground. Yet, if it succeeds, it will blow open the doors for all sorts of new uses and applications of bitcoin. And if it fails? Nothing will change. Bitcoiners will find something to blame other than bitcoin. Meanwhile, the rest of the world will say “I told you so” and continue to believe whatever they already believed. Everybody will keep doing what they’ve been doing. What this means for El Salvador and the people in this new city? We’ll see how it turns out in a few years. But will you still care about this in a few years?
Check out this rare pattern in the aggregate order books from exchanges and DEXs that use order books, circled below.
That’s a whole stack of buy orders on the left compared to sell orders on the right. It’s lopsided.
If we saw that once or even a few times, it would mean nothing. Lopsided order books happen all the time. Usually, they get back to even fairly quickly. This is, after all, the shortest of short-term data. It can change in an instant.
But this pattern has persisted for the better part of a week. No balance. Still lopsided every time I check.
What does this mean?
It means lots of people are waiting to buy when the price drops, compared to people who are waiting to sell when the price goes up. Assuming this one bit of data reflects the broader psychology of all market participants, it suggests interest in buying remains strong.
Relax and enjoy the ride!