It’s nice to see you’re still here. If you missed my April 20, 2022 update, get it now.
Also check your inbox for the April monthly issue. I sent it on Friday (maybe Saturday where you are).
Search volume and exchange sign-ups have fallen to levels comparable to the summer of 2021. I remember those days. Nobody cared about crypto.
Bitcoin’s search volume is actually down to October 2020 levels. Other terms like crypto, Ethereum, NFTs have fallen quite a bit over the past few months. You can see this clearly on Google Trends, so I won’t clog up this rundown with extra charts. Check Google Trends to see what I’m talking about.
When will interest pick up again?
After price does. Search volume and exchange sign-ups always lag price. They peak after the price goes down and bottom after the price goes up. By the time they tell you anything important, the opportunity to use that information has passed.
Read on for a poll, a tweet, two videos, and an article. Paid subscribers, scroll to the very bottom for a timely, important note that does not appear in the audio or free version of this post.
Poll: which price comes first for bitcoin?
(Click on one option.)
In my monthly issue, I pointed out a few risks in the macro investment environment, among them a collapse in bonds and a sovereign debt crisis for low- and middle-income countries.
Tuur Demeester shared some snippets from the chairwoman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a non-governmental organization that aims to keep countries from a financial crisis. She says it better than I do, er, technically this tweet says it best.
If you’re into data, you may want to check out the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, which tracks the health of government finances for most countries. It’s a grim story.
Only the Savvy posted a snippet of a Blockworks interview with celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary talking about his expectations and mindset about crypto at this moment, particularly in light of the global financial situation as it concerns the US.
O’Leary sees no signs of a slowdown and doubts the US central bank will tame economic growth as quickly as it says it will. Watch this video for more.
Chicago Board Options Exchange Files Trademark for NFT & Crypto Services
Bottom line: the largest options exchange in the US reserved the intellectual property for a potential NFT platform in the metaverse.
My take: always nice to see big businesses figure out new ways to make money off of our interest in digital assets. This will help bring more money into the market once the price of bitcoin goes up again. Legacy finance will fundamentally change crypto for better and worse, as I wrote about in more depth in Bitcoin or Bust: Wall Street’s Entry Into Cryptocurrency.
Why we care: Billy the Neighbor lost interest in crypto a few months ago. CBOE joins a long list of companies happy to get him interested again—for a small fee. Do you really want to sit in stablecoins when that happens?
In the April monthly issue, I talked about a huge risk that nobody seems to cover, but matters more now than ever because the market has few buyers, a historically low percentage of bitcoins on exchanges, and a lot of leverage relative to the volume of activity (though low by historical standards).
Watch this video for a little clarification on my view of the market.
Paid subscribers, read below. Everybody else—relax and enjoy the ride!