Apr 4, 2022 • 3M

Weekly Rundown - April 3, 2022


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Happy Sunday!

I have good news and bad news.

The good news: bitcoin’s price has gone up for 69 days.

The bad news: we’re on schedule for a golden cross in May on the 1-day trading chart. Traders say that’s bullish. I’m not so sure.

Five times, bitcoin’s price went lower for days, weeks, and months after a golden cross. Three times, it went up forever. You can it on this chart.

Does this mean we’re overdue for an “up forever” moment, as the bulls expect? Or will we get that drop to $30,000 or $24,000 that the bears expect?

We’ll see.

If you missed my update from March 30, 2022, catch it now.

Catch the March 30, 2022 Update

Are you wondering why I haven’t mentioned the order books in a while?

Because they’re the shortest of short-term metrics and change all the time. I only mention them when they’re lopsided and they don’t change for a long time, which is very rare.

Today, the order books look like this:

Pretty even. They’ve looked like that for a few weeks now—sometimes a little heavy on the bids, sometimes a little heavy on the asks. Very normal. Totally unremarkable. Therefore I have no remarks!

Scroll down for news, notes, charts, tweets, and videos. Note, I’ll have to skip next week’s rundown—more travel—but I’ll catch you on April 17, 2022.

This week, the yield on 2-year US bonds went lower than the yield on 10-year US bonds, a phenomenon known as “yield curve inversion.”

After the yield curve inverts, the US economy goes into recession within six months to two years. To wit:

That chart only goes back to 1976, but that’s the oldest data I can get. For my take on this event, watch my one-minute YouTube short.

Watch my YouTube Short

BTW if you hold or use WAVES, read this thread. Not financial advice just FYI.

Note, WAVES is not a Ponzi, it’s a legit project that’s having an artificial pump. Welcome to crypto.

At the end of February, somebody sent a bunch of tokens to FTX from a wallet associated with the project or its team. In March, somebody started leveraging stablecoins to buy WAVES. As the price went up, this person (or persons) leveraged WAVES to mint stablecoins, which he/she/they leveraged to buy WAVES, which were then leveraged for more stablecoins to buy more WAVES.

That’s not sustainable.

If you’ve followed me long enough, you know I liked WAVES a few years ago. Today, I hold no WAVES and I haven’t looked into the project for a long time. Its founder, Sasha Ivanov, suggested Alameda is behind the shenanigans. We may never know whether it’s the VCs, the team, or some whale.

I do know this will come to a bad ending.

Dirty business, this.

That’s all for this week. If you’re on the paid plan, I’ll have another update soon, possibly two this week.

Everybody else, I’ll leave you with this meme.

Relax and enjoy the ride!

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