Weekly Rundown - December 19, 2021
Omicron. And this, too:
BTW more reports out of China that its shadow banking system may have more cracks in it than anybody expected. Not the kind of rumors you want to hear out of the world’s #2 largest economy and most countries’ largest trading partner.
Yet as far as crypto goes, the evidence shows strong accumulation patterns and healthy churn among people holding and using bitcoins. In the bear markets of 2011, 2014, and 2018, we saw the opposite.
That should make next month’s death cross very interesting.
Last week’s poll asked “When will bitcoin’s price go above its all-time high of $69,058?”
Check out the responses:
Before December 31, 2021—19%
Between January 1, 2022 and March 15, 2022—61%
After March 15, 2022—17%
Never—3%
What do I think?
I’ll join the majority in targeting January-March next year, with an outside chance we get back to $69k before the end of this year.
Read below for another poll, two articles, two images, and a video you may enjoy.
Premium subscribers, make sure you caught my altcoin market update from this week, it has interesting insights into Ethereum and touches on a few other topics, too.
No bitcoin update this week, but everything’s essentially the same as it’s been for a while. I’ll get you an update in the next day or two. Also look for the monthly issue this week.
Poll: Do you believe in trading charts and technical analysis?
WhatsApp launches cryptocurrency payments pilot in the US
Bottom line: Meta let a small number of US users send crypto to other users through WhatsApp. It’s testing the functionality and integration with its Novi wallet.
My take: what, no Congressional hearings? In 2019, when Facebook proposed its Libra stablecoin, everybody considered it an evil attempt to use money to rule the world. Now, Facebook does the same thing (as Meta) and it’s back-page news. I guess things change when you use dollars instead of your own currency. Don’t sleep on this—especially with plans for the metaverse in full swing. It’s a potentially game-changing application of cryptocurrency with a range consequences simply because Meta’s so big. For example, what happens if the US dollar becomes the de facto currency of the metaverse (via Meta’s use of stablecoins)?
Why we care: just wait until Meta builds a DEX and DeFi platform to go with its payment platform. In the past year, it rolled out payments in India and Brazil on legacy financial infrastructure. This pilot runs on a totally new payment rail. The possibilities are endless—for both good and bad.
Saw this chart floating around “the internets,” as one US president used to call the web.
According to this chart, if crypto paces the internet, less than a billion people will use it by the end of 2024. I don’t know if the correlation and project is actually true but it seems plausible.
What do you think? Please comment!
Consumer sentiment rises unexpectedly in early December
Bottom line: in the US, low-income people feel better about the economy now than they did last month. People at other income levels feel the same or worse.
My take: with the US government reporting real wages essentially flat for the year and down for the middle 50% of workers, does this bump in low-income sentiment suggest the “wealth effect” is at play? People feel good when their wages and assets go up, even if their costs of living go up, too. A sense of hope and optimism makes them feel better about spending money, even if their money doesn’t go as far as it used to (gas, rent, inflation, etc).
Why we care: better for us that people are happy than sad. Scared money doesn’t buy crypto (or usually anything).
I posted my first YouTube QA last week. In the 6-minute video, I covered Tether (USDT), Ethereum’s flippening, and correlations with the S&P 500. Feel free to watch.
Some fun images for older people, courtesy of Forrest Taylor:
Relax and enjoy the ride!
Weekly Rundown - December 19, 2021
Poll: TA & Charting. Yes* but...
Crypto, namely BTC, is too easily influenced by a few individuals and non-public whales . Elon Musk can tank a market with a tweet right in the middle of trend confirmation and set off liquidation cascades. And factual on-chain data analysis that ends with guesses (since we don't know if "spends" are "sales" , or if multiple wallets are controlled by one entity) vs. non-factual things like traditional chart patterns that often play out better than the on chain facts make my head hurt.
TA in crypto is about as useful as being extremely smart, extremely lucky and extremely sleep deprived-- In other words, I haven't a CLUE how useful it is. It's right on the money 50% , totally invalidated 50% and 100% very pretty to look at. I'm not any richer or poorer due to it. So yeah. I believe in it when it's right AND I make some money. Rare.
Zukbrg/Meta: Seriously Zuck? You don't have control of enough already? You gotta go and likely ruin anything good that can come of this space? Seriously dude? This is the most personally macro bearish news I've heard since I got into crypto.
I don't think I've ever used "hate" before in print on the internets but seriously I fkin hate... rainy weather. (Not gonna go and get marked by Mark Z by actually saying it, he prob owns this comment box). Having enough liquid cash reserves for 50 lifetimes of antitrust fines and FTC wrist slaps is just perverse.
Speaking of internets, that graph is a rude awakening if it's accurate. I hope it is grossly incorrect. If this whole thing is just a linear predictable line like that on a logarithmic scale, that's just sad. Then no one was early or late to crypto except Satoshi and a handful of others between 2012-2014. And my portfolio is nothing better or fresher than $SPY for the last 50 years. I'd stop studying blockchain and economics and high level finance every day and go get some sleep for once if all I have to look forward to is being a dot on the most boring chart I've ever seen.
I'll regret this, but not a good day. Hopefully I'll come back to this comment one day and laugh. In the meantime I hope some of CIE peeps get a little laugh from it today.
Cheers Mark!