I hope you’re doing well wherever you are. Scroll below for an interesting note about the order books, last week’s poll results, a video, two articles, and a meme you may enjoy.
Since my March 1, 2022 market update, order books show a persistent stack of buy orders down to $20,000 and proportionately few sell orders above $40,000 across a bunch of exchanges.
I check a few times each day. While my service doesn’t catch all of the exchanges—sometimes only a handful, sometimes up to 15 depending on the quality of the feed for any particular moment—the books have looked like this for days:
Buyers on the left, sellers on the right. Not a lot of people waiting to sell at higher prices. Lots of people waiting for bitcoin’s price to drop to $30,000 or lower.
If that’s you, good luck. You have a lot of people ahead of you.
Granted, the order books change ALL THE TIME. When you read this, they may show a stack of sell orders.
So why do I mention it?
Because it hasn’t changed in at least five days, which is rare. What are the buyers waiting for? From the results of last week’s poll, I think I know. More on that a little further down the page.
Quite often, when you see order books skewed to the left, you get only a few hours or a few minutes to fill your low bids. Sometimes, they don’t fill at all.
In January and February 2022, you had a combined total of 64 hours to catch bitcoin’s price below $35,000. In June and July 2021, you got even fewer hours to catch the drops below $30,000, spread across three days. See the boxes shaded in this price chart.
Catching bottoms is hard!
And even if you catch it, you still don’t know if you’re going to get another leg down afterward.
What’s the solution?
I don’t know. For that reason, I stick to my plan.
(BTW the bottom is $0.)
Last week’s poll asked, “Will bitcoin's price ever go below $33,000 again?”
60% of you said “yes” with the other 40% split evenly between “no” and “I don’t know.”
My answer?
I don’t know, but if that happens, it would surprise me. I’ll have another poll next week.
Watch this Data Dash video about the Mayer Multiple, one of the metrics I looked at when researching my plan. It’s bitcoin’s price divided by the 200 daily moving average, an average of all prices for the past 200 days.
While I don’t make any decisions based on this metric, it’s a nice tool for getting a sense of how “hot” or “cold” the market is. You can use this tool to validate your feelings about tops and bottoms. WooBull keeps a chart to follow along.
Contrary to the title of this video, the Mayer Multiple doesn’t actually predict bottoms but when you post content online you have to write titles that grab eyeballs and catch the attention of the algorithms that run the social media platforms. For example, using words like “bitcoin model,” “predict/prediction,” “bottom” (when the market’s down), “peak” (when the market’s up), and so on.
It’s like wearing a suit and tie to business meetings with Boomers. You probably don’t want to do it, but you have to do it or else they won’t care what you have to say.
The Past, Present, and Future of NFTs — And Why it Will be Wild...
Bottom line: learn about how NFTs evolved and what they will do in the future that they can’t do today.
My take: as smart contracts improve and governments craft property laws that accommodate digital assets, you’ll find more and wider usage of NFTs. That transition will take a while. JPEGs are the first iteration.
Why we care: we dismissed bitcoin until Wall Street started talking about it. We treated altcoins like trading cards until they produced actual real-world benefits. Do we really want to miss the boat on NFTs because our JPEGs lost their value?
And last, a meme that people of my age can appreciate.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
Weekly Rundown - March 6, 2022