Is it July already?
Bitcoin’s price—and the overall crypto market—has gone sideways for weeks, with a mix of bullish and bearish signs on trading charts, in on-chain data, and around the interwebs.
I still hear calls for a supercycle. I also still hear calls for a multi-year bear market.
What’s my prediction for what happens next?
I don’t make predictions. Historically, when we see trends, patterns, and on-chain behaviors that most closely match what we’re seeing now, the market goes sideways or down for months (mostly sideways).
Whether we’re actually in a bull or bear market?
You tell me. What do you call the green boxes on this chart?
Of all the moves we’re seen over the years, those green boxes most closely resemble what we’re going through now. They all happen in the middle of bull markets and last 5-7 months.
And they all suck to go through—but I don’t know anybody who’s mad about buying during them.
Frankly, the definitions of “bull market” and “bear market” change depending on who you talk to you. Some say the bull market started at the beginning of 2019, others say the bull market started in December 2020. That’s a big range of dates.
You can pick out fractals and cherry-pick certain indicators to construct an equal case for a bull market and a bear market.
Does it matter?
It’s realistic to expect we will stay below $65,000 until November. You will have to wait six months to double the value of your investment. There’s an outside chance it will take another year to get back to that price. You will have to wait a year to double the value of your investment.
In any other market, you’d have to wait years to get the same result.
What am I doing about it?
I’m just following my plan.
If you have subscribed for a while, you may be wondering why I am not as enthusiastic and confident about the market as I was in September 2020.
Back then—really, through the beginning of November—we saw so many signs of strength and momentum. Now, we see a lot of mixed signals. But I follow my plan anyway. It’s based on history, always takes the long view, and aims to make the most of the time, money, and effort we put into this market.
Regarding altseason, catch my update from June 29, 2021 (linked below). In a nutshell: it could take a while to get another altseason.
Here’s what else you missed in June and what you can look forward to in July.
What you missed in June
Market Updates
Sunday Rundowns
What to expect in July
Perspective on the markets and the news.
Weekly rundowns of interesting stories, events, and observations.
Either an altcoin report or a special issue about crypto lending (one or the other, not both, premium subscribers only)
Bitcoin and altcoin market updates (premium subscribers only).
Do you have any airdrops you could recommend? Email me at mark@markhelfman.com and I’ll use your referral link!
If you’re not a premium subscriber, you may want to think about upgrading your experience. Use this “Subscribe Now” button to upgrade your subscription.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
June Recap, July Preview for Crypto is Easy