This week, bitcoin’s trading chart printed a two-day death cross.
On top of that, this two-day death cross came after a cross down on the monthly MAC-D, another trading indicator.
If you don’t know what that means, you might not want to trade this market. I don’t trade, either.
Fortunately, the last time both of these trading signals happened in the same order, bitcoin’s price went slightly lower two weeks later, then up forever. It was the generational bottom.
Unfortunately, the time before that, bitcoin’s price dropped for months afterwards.
One time the price went up, another time the price went down. Enjoy your technical analysis!
Premium subscribers, make you you caught my updates from this week.
Bitcoin Market Update—on-chain behaviors, “bear market” views, geopolitics
Altcoin Market Update—non-ETH altcoin trends, NFTs, DeFi, BTC/altcoin dominance
Last week’s poll asked “What theory do you think fits the market best?”
Halving cycles won 27% of the vote. Four-year cycles and expanding cycles each got 21% while 26% said no theory fits the market.
Stock-to-flow (and S2Fx) got only 4% which is interesting.
I’m with the 26% who don’t think any of those theories fit the market best but some of them make sense to me. It’s interesting to see how they play out over time.
Scroll down for an article, two videos, and a meme you may enjoy.
National Football League has been lobbying the SEC on blockchain technology
Bottom line: the US’s biggest sport league wants to do NFTs and crypto-related activities but worries US regulators will zap them for doing so. They hired government insiders to check in with government officials last year.
My take: in last week’s rundown, I shared an article about how the NFL takes a cautious approach to crypto-related business opportunities. Lobbyists can gather intelligence, provide analysis, and make connections with key players in advance of new ventures. I used to do this for a Fortune 500 company. Sometimes it leads to nothing, sometimes it clears the path for businesses to move forward. This article is about a sports league but you’ll find the same practice across pretty much every industry in the US.
Why we care: appearances can be deceiving. When it comes to business and government, you never know what’s going on behind the scenes unless you look. (Though it’s usually a lot more boring and far less evil than you think.)
Some people worry about regulations changing crypto. Which begs the question, how can governments or financial institutions control a decentralized, permissionless technology?
Heidi from Crypto Tips gives a great answer (it’s about people not tech).
I also posted some QAs on YouTube. In this video, I answer a few questions and address concerns about volatility and expectations for this market.
Last, a meme drawn from one my favorite movies.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
Weekly Rundown - February 20, 2022