Weekly Rundown - January 23, 2022
Down is the new up
Tough week. Scroll down for three interesting stories, a video, and a poll.
To the people who say I called the drop below $40k in my last update, thanks but that wasn’t my intent nor do I think I said that, even if it may have come across that way. I was just pointing out market dynamics that I’ve talked about in previous updates, risks and circumstances we see fairly often.
If anything I say comes to pass, assume it’s a coincidence or you misunderstood me. At any time the range of realistic outcomes is way wider than you think. Almost anything I talk about can come true.
That’s the point—this is a volatile and uncertain market, a hard market in many ways, and the goal of this newsletter is to step outside the day-to-day and get some perspective that can help us navigate the market.
Likewise, if you’re mad that you read my most recent update a day or two after I sent it, please note most of that update covered things I’ve talked about in previous updates. It mostly checked in on trends, patterns, risks, and observations we’ve tracked for months, and I offered my take on what I’m seeing.
At the end of the day, I make all decisions based on my plan.
To understand my mindset at this moment, read or listen to the November monthly issue.
Yes, my mindset is the same now as it was in November, and if you’re a new subscriber, you might be surprised to discover what my mindset is. (Maybe.)
Read on for some content you may enjoy.
If you appreciate my work, please vote for me in any of the Hacker Noon award categories I’m nominated in:
Poll: is crypto in a bear market?
Check out a real-life use of NFTs.
New York City’s exclusive FlyFish Club turned its membership program into NFTs. To get into the restaurant, you have to hold an NFT or lease it from an NFT holder. Visit the website for more information.
Time will tell whether FlyFish Club NFTs will be new yellow taxi medallions or the vanguard proprietor of a new membership model. Cool to see somebody giving it a go.
Should I launch an NFT for Crypto is Easy?
Sometimes I get questions from different readers along similar lines. Watch this 7-minute video for my answers to a few of those questions, in case you’re wondering the same things as other people.
Walmart to Launch its own Crypto and Collection of NFTs
Bottom line: Walmart filed trademarks for crypto and crypto-related products and services. Note, there is no evidence they plan to launch their own crypto and collection of NFTs, only that they’re protecting whatever IP and branding assets that might go along with a potential launch, should they move forward.
My take: sounds like a regulatory mess but the more businesses that see profit in crypto, the more allies we will have in US Congress. Do you think Texas Senator Ted Cruz turned into a bitcoin-lover because he read the whitepaper? It’s possible. More likely, Texas’s big gas and oil lobbyists told him they can make a lot of money on crypto.
Why we care: the world’s largest retailer is eyeing the Metaverse, possibly with crypto as a part of its venture. That’s a big deal if it happens.
Fraud, Funding Woes and a President Who Won’t Quit: El Salvador’s Bitcoin Experiment
Bottom line: El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoin isn’t going very well. So far, it’s an unpopular money-loser that most people don’t want any part of.
My take: hard to pass judgment on any effort after only four months of trying. More importantly, El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment is a no-lose proposition for everybody except El Salvadorans, their families, and their trading partners. If Bukele fails, nothing changes. Haters still hate, maximalists still maximalize, and no opinions change. If he succeeds, hearts and minds might change. Although it would be ironic if a bad bitcoin investment caused the fall of a wanna-be dictator who spies on journalists and raises money from criminal gangs. Would that be good or bad for freedom?
Why we care: from an investment standpoint, El Salvador’s actions don’t matter for the wider market. Its economy is small, its bitcoin hand-outs totaled less than $200 million, and its government holds only about $50-60 million worth of BTC. But it’s a fascinating experiment and worth keeping track of.
Relax and enjoy the ride!