Weekly Rundown - December 5, 2021
Heard any good jokes lately?
Thanks for the kind words regarding my analysis of the past few weeks and the specific suggestions of the past few days. I appreciate the vote of confidence. I’m not sure I deserve it, I offer such a wide range of expected outcomes that this market will almost always do something within that range of outcomes.
(It’s a pretty big range.)
While I know it’s not helpful to some—50/50 analysis—the point is not to be right or wrong. In a market like this, perspective matters. Prices change from one day to the next. What does that say about the opportunities you have in this moment and the conditions that frame those opportunities?
Hopefully, my analysis helps you navigate this bull market.
“Mark, it’s not a bull market.”
Are you sure about that?
As of today, bitcoin’s price has made a series of higher highs and higher lows for almost six months, since the June 22, 2021 bottom at $28,500. Since 2018, its price has ended each year higher than it started. This year, its longest downtrend was 69 days. Last month’s high was higher April’s high. Last month’s low was higher than April’s low. Yes, we’re five days into December and its price is lower than it was a few weeks ago. That’s still higher than the start of every month except April and November of this year.
Crypto is the only market where prices go up and people still call it a bear market. Financial hypochondria.
And it doesn’t even matter. Regardless of whether we’re in a raging bull market or the depths of a bear market, you always have opportunities. Often, they come when you least expect.
What are your goals? Your investment time frame? Financial status? Tax situation? Tolerance for risk and volatility?
If you’re looking to build wealth through owning cryptocurrency, you can follow my plan—or adapt if for your own use.
Somebody else will do better, most will do worse, and you’ll almost certainly beat dollar-cost averaging and most traders. In other words, you’ll do ok. If you strictly follow my plan, your bitcoin is break-even at worst and up 800% at best. You may be down about 10% if you got in after my November 24, 2021 update. Substantively my analysis has not changed since then.
(Your altcoins could be way higher or lower depending on what you bought and when you bought it.)
Premium subscribers, make sure you got my alert from earlier this week. I’ll have an update soon.
For everybody else, scroll down for a recap of November’s posts, a news article, and a video. It may seem out of sorts for the market sentiment. I’ll let others fit the mood. Maybe this rundown helps you escape the moment.
In last week’s rundown, I said I’d have a poll this week but it’s too much to fit into this email. I’ll put one out next week.
If you appreciate my work, please vote for me in any of the Hacker Noon award categories I’m nominated in:
What you missed in November
Bottom line: one of Italy’s chartered flight companies took 33% of its payments in crypto.
My take: assuming that company is not unknowingly facilitating a global money-laundering operation, that’s pretty cool. (Even if it is unknowingly facilitating a global money-laundering operation, a use case is a use case, right?)
Why we care: these events usually create selling pressure because businesses often sell some or all of that bitcoin immediately for cash as most prefer the accounting clarity and price stability that comes with cash. Especially as the market rises, we need more of that activity to keep it from overheating and also to help people understand the usefulness of public payment protocols. This behavior also makes bitcoin seem more “real” and less speculative.
Lost in the FUD of sub-$50,000 bitcoin is the hack of DeFi platform, BadgerDAO.
DeFi hacks happen all the time. In that regard, nothing new here and many projects have suffered hacks and not only survived, but thrived afterwards. Watch Coindesk’s video on this, which offers context around the hack and some food for thought.
To my knowledge, other DeFi hacks exploited smart contracts, the protocols that make these systems work. If I understand correctly, this hack targeted a user interface, essentially prompting connected wallets to give the hackers permission to take their users’ funds—a new attack vector that probably deserves more attention than it gets.
I’m interested in seeing the ramifications. Celsius took a loss, with no affect on customers. Nexus Mutual refused to cover claims. Users will likely not get funds back and developers may not have a way to freeze funds. Regulators are likely already snooping around.
Just another day in crypto. If not for these risks, we would not have these opportunities.
Relax and enjoy the ride!